Sinner wins on his debut in Doha, here’s when he can return No.1

Good premiere in Doha forJannik Sinner. The blue, number two in the world and seeding, in the first round of the “Qatar ExxonMobil Open”, tournamentATP 500on stage on the hard course of the Qatari capital, he beat the CzechTomas Machac31st in the international ranking, with a score of 6-1 6-4, in just over an hour of play. In the round of 16 the South Tyrolean will challenge the AustralianAlexei Popyrin53rd in the world.

With the beginning ofDoha tournamentpart therun-up by Jannik Sinnerto the throne ofCarlos Alcaraz. At the start of the tournament, after the victory in Melbourne, the Spaniard holds 13,650 points, followed by Jannik at 3,350 points (10,300 points). A huge gap, which however does not compromise the Italian’s hopes of overthrowing Carlitos before the tournaments in Spain in April or the one at home,Italian internationals (6-17 maggio 2026).

The favorable calendar for Sinner

The calendar in the coming months, in fact, partly smiles on him. Due to a stop,Sinnerin 2025 after Melbourne he stopped for three months, returning to the field in May, at theInternationals of Italy in Rome. Therefore, zero points forfeited in the intermediate tournaments. All points that will enter the blue’s spoils from today onwards until the Foro Italico tournament, where he lost in the final against Alcaraz.

The situation of Alcaraz and the ATP in Doha

As for the Spaniard, in 2025 he started quietly without any major initial successes, so it is likely that his haul will still be quite substantial in March. He gave up theATP 500 in Rotterdamwhere he was defending champion, losing 500 points (dropping to 13,150).

All’ATP 500 in Dohawhere last year he was eliminated in the quarterfinals he will have to deduct just 100 points. Here he will find himself againJannik Sinner. A hypothetical final between the two won by the blue would produce the following effect in the standings: Jannik would reach10,800 pointsagainst Alcaraz’s 13,350.

The American challenges: Indian Wells and Miami

In the following tournament the rackets of the twoterrible guysthey will meet again. Starting fromATP 1000 at Indian Wellswhere the Spaniard has to ‘discard’ 360 points (in 2025 he lost in the semi-final). If they reached the final together, winningSinnerwould take home the full spoils while adAlcarazthere would be just 240 points left. Hypothetical ranking situation: Alcaraz 13,590 points and Sinner 11,800. The tournamentATP 1000 in Miamihowever, sees the two contenders arrive with practically the same points expectations, given that Alcaraz lost in the 32nd in 2025, pocketing just 45 points. Winning in Florida, hypothetically in the final with Alcaraz,Sinnerit would lead to12,800 pointsagainst 14,145 for the Spaniard.

Overtaking in Monte Carlo and Barcelona

We then arrive atMonte Carlo(5-12 April), 1000 point tournament won last year by Alcaraz who, therefore, at most could confirm the 14,145, whileSinnerwill collect the entire prize. If the blue were to win (once again hypothetically in the final with Alcaraz) theovertaking: we would arrive in Barcelona with the two practically paired, but with the Spaniard at 13,745 points against the13.800of the blue. Then to the tournamentATP 500 in Cataloniathe overtaking could consolidate: in 2025 Alcaraz lost in the final to Rune, taking home 300 points. Therefore, assuming once again a success for Sinner over the Spaniard in the final, we would have the Italian more firmly at the top of the field.ATP ranking: 13,745 Alcaraz points against14.300 Sinner.

Variables and future prospects

What has been done is clearly a game that is based on absolutely ‘extreme’ hypotheses, i.e. that the Spaniard and the Italian will reach the final in all the tournaments in which they will participate and that in all the direct clashes it will beJannikto prevail. It is obvious that there are a thousand variables to consider, above all the eternalNovak Djokovic. But it shouldn’t be underestimated eitherLorenzo Musetti e Alexander Zverevwho have proven to be truly competitive and finally able to counter the two phenomena who will dominate tennis from 2024. Regardless of the timing, what is certain is that 2026 will still see protagonistsCarlos Alcaraz e Jannik Sinnerin an exciting challenge for dominance of the tennis kingdom. For Italians the apotheosis would be to see theovertaking in the Rome tournament.