Because in Monte Carlo Sinner can become world number 1 again

Jannik Sinner woke up this Saturday morning with one in his headfinal to play e una classificationwhich is starting to become more adequate to its role as the absolute protagonist of world tennis. ThereMiami semi-final vinta contro Alexander Zverev— 6-3 7-6, clear, almost cruel — reduced the gap fromCarlos Alcarazat 1,540 points (at the start of the Miami tournament they were 2,150). Sunday, infinal against the Czech Jiri Lehecka, Sinnercan break them down further. If he wins, he drops to 1,190 points fromnumber 1 in the world. It’s certainly not theovertaking at the topbut the mathematical certainty that thethrone is decided in Monte Carlo.

I numbersthey speak clearly.Alcarazit is currently at 13,590points in the ATP rankings, Sinner a 11.450. In Floridathe blue doesn’t even have apoint to defend— last year he was disqualified for the Clostebol case — and every result ispure profit. Se vince in finale sale a 12.400. Alcaraz invece a Miamihe only added crumbs: eliminated in the third round bySebastian Kordahe collected 40 points, stopping at 13,590. If Jannik triumphs, achieving the Sunshine Double, the Indian Wells–Miami double – the last to achieve this was Roger Federer in 2017 – thegapit will settle at 1,190 points. With a defeat, thedetachmentAlcaraz-Sinner would remain at 1,540.Numberswhich, taken in this way, seem to suggest that a possible overtaking at the top of the ATP rankings is still far away. But let’s waitMonte Carlo.

The real hub: Monte Carlo, 5-12 April

At the tournament in the Principality of Monaco the situation is reversed.Alcarazwill see i come out1,000 pointsobtained by winning thetitle last year, starting virtually onMonegasque tournament a 12.590 punti. Sinnerinstead it doesn’t discard anything, because in 2025 aMonte Carloit wasn’t there. If it comes fromMiami finalwith 12,400 points, he will present himself at theMasters 1000 of the Principality a soli 190 points from the top. One hundred and ninety points. The difference between atennis roundand another.

Now let’s see the possible scenarios that take into account Jannik’s possible victory in Miami or his defeat.

Scenario A: Sinner wins Miami and then wins Monte Carlo

Il overtaking is guaranteedregardless of whatever results you getAlcaraz. Monday 13 AprilJannikwould be againnumber 1 in the world. End of games, Jannik returns to thethrone.

Scenario B: Sinner wins Miami, Alcaraz in the final in Monte Carlo

Alcaraz con la finalewould rise to 13,240 and would have to cede the throne toSinnerif he beat him: with thetitleJannik would reach 13,400. Those190 points aheadthey would guarantee theovertakingeven in the event of defeat in the semi-final or final, as long asAlcarazstops at least one turn earlier thanJannik. In practice: just do aextra turn than the Spaniard.

Scenario C: Sinner wins Miami, Alcaraz wins Monte Carlo

Carlos recupera 1,000 net points e porta il gap a circa 1.190 punti. Comeback postponedbut not compromised, because from then on it is all uphill to Alcarazand downhill libera per Sinner.

Scenario D: Sinner non vince Miami

il detachmentit remains around 1,540 points before the deviations. TOMonte Carlothey would be usefulmore complex businessesbut not impossible: one would be enoughSinner finale e un’early elimination of Alcarazto reopen everything.

The big picture: Sinner ready to win number 1

Il general picturefavors the Italian regardless of the results ofMiami e Monte Carlo. Alcaraz deve defend 4,300 points entro il Roland Garros — la vittoria a Monte Carlola finale a Barcelonathe title aRoma e il Roland Garros 2025. Sinnerinstead, it has practically nonenothing to defendup toItalian internationals: last year it was stopped, and everypoint conquered on earth sarà pure profit. A Romait might even show up fromnumber 1 in the world davanti al Italian publicon the fiftieth anniversary of the last Italian victory atForo Italicoin men’s singles. Last year he reached the final, but Alcaraz won, so a possible reversed result would bring more points to the blue.

Sinner’s words: “I’m relaxed”

E Sinnerwhat does he say? He downplays it, of course. “I play to be therebest possible version of myself. La classificationit’s just a consequence of how I will play. I have arelaxed point of viewlet’s see how things will go,” he toldTennis Channel. Translation: he knows very well what is happening, but he doesn’t think about it. Or at least pretend. There is one on Sundayfinal to win. The rest, as he says, goes accordingly.