Tonight the kick-off of the 2024 European Football Championships in Germany. We start at 9pm with the match between the hosts and the Scotland to Munich. The tournament lasts a month and the group stage will last until June 26. The top two in the six groups will go to the round of 16 together with the four best third-placed teams. The knockout phase will begin on June 29. Euro 2024 will end with the final which will be played on 14 July at 9pm at the Olympiastadion in Berlin.
It is the first time that Germany has hosted the continental football championship since German reunification. The national teams are divided into six groups. Group A: Germany, Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland; Group B: Spain, Croatia, Italy, Albania; Group C: Slovenia, Denmark, Serbia, England; Group D: Poland, Netherlands, Austria, France; Group E: Belgium, Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine; Group F: Türkiye, Georgia, Portugal, Czech Republic.
Although the team playing at home is traditionally the favourite, operators agree France and England as the main candidates for victory, ahead of Germany, the host country, and Spain. Out of the predictions (as in 2021) the Italian national team that comes considered by bookmakers only a possible outsider. In the absence of visionary animals born in the footsteps of Paul the octopus of the 2010 World Cup (from the sea turtle Cabecao of Brazil in 2014 to Kent the Zagreb gibbon of the World Cup in Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022), this time it is technology that steps forward, replacing the little animal with an algorithm. There is a forecast model created by Opta to estimate the development possibilities of a given competition, a mathematical model used which takes into account multiple variables, including: strengths and weaknesses of the opponents still to be faced; historical series of results; precedents; performance indices and much more.
According to the algorithm, Italy has an 80.3% chance of passing our group where only Spain has a higher chance (89.1%), while Croatia (67.8) and Albania (33.4) they have lower numbers. As for the rest of the competition, the algorithm is merciless: reaching the quarterfinals is estimated at 47.2% (eighth best probability in the competition); the semi-final at 23.1% (eighth best probability in the competition); the final at 11.4% (sixth best probability in the competition). Finally, according to the forecast model, the chances of Italy winning Euro 2024 are 5% (seventh best chance in the competition).
So who will win? Statistical and mathematical calculations say that England has the highest probability of winning the final with 19.9% ahead of France with 19.1%. Third and fourth are Germany with 12.4% and Spain with 9.2. Is everything decided? Maybe not. With all due respect to the algorithm, in fact, we know that football is a completely unpredictable sport. And Italy demonstrates this, for better or for worse: champion against all odds at Euro2020 and not qualified (against all odds) for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. If the match between national teams, barring any surprises, should still be limited to the squad contemplated by experts and computers, that among the samples (established and potential) is wider. There are some like Portuguese Cristiano Ronaldo, the Croatian Luka Modric and German Toni Kroosprobably ready to stage their last dance in the national team.
Then there are the stars announced, starting with the Frenchman Kylian Mbappe’, fresh from a new contract with Real Madrid, and from the Englishman Jude Bellingham, his next clubmate in Spain. Among the bright stars or those waiting to shine even brighter there are also the Turkish player from Inter Hakan Calhanogluthe Portuguese player from Milan Rafael Leaothe Belgian from Manchester City Kevin De Bruyne, British Phil Foden of City e Harry Kane of Bayern, in addition to the Italians Nicolò Barella, Federico Chiesa e Gianluca Scamacca (on the launch pad). Possible (and desirable) surprise too Lorenzo Pellegriniblocked three years ago by an injury and current owner of the No. 10 shirt that belonged to Antognoni, Baggio, Del Piero and Totti.
Chapter apart from that of the goalkeepers. It will be the consecration of Gianluigi Donnarumma as the best in Europe (and the world) or will it still be the German Manuel Neuer of Bayern to keep the title? Or it will be the third wheel’s turn, the Swiss player from Inter Yann Sommer the title of best goalkeeper of Euro 2024? Tonight we start at 9pm with Germany-Scotland. Italy will play on Saturday the 15th at 9pm against Albania, then will return to the field on June 20th against Spain and on the 24th against Croatia, again at 9pm. The lineup that will probably start should be the following: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Bellanova, Barella, Jorginho, Dimarco; Pellegrini, Church; Scamacca.