Who will win the Tour de France this time?

The Tour de France starts its 111th edition on Saturday – traditionally with a detour abroad, this time in Florence, Italy. The legendary three-week tour through France is considered the highlight of the cycling season. Which riders have the best chance of winning the yellow jersey this time? Three experts give their assessment.

In our “3 on 1” section, experts answer current questions – you can find all episodes of “3 on 1” here.

Tadej Pogacar can count on his physique and a strong team

If nothing goes wrong, this year’s Tour de France will be won by Tadej Pogacar. The Slovenian can rely not only on a strong team, but also on his physical abilities. He won the Giro in May without any problems, so to speak, in passing and in preparation for the Tour de France.

His only serious competitor in the Grand Loop starting in Florence would have been the Dane Jonas Vingegaard. The two-time Tour winner has not competed in any races since his serious fall at the beginning of April and has only been back on the bike since the beginning of May following his serious injuries. Vingegaard will start, but a Tour victory this year with this history would be a real miracle.

Primoz Roglic (Slovenia) and Remco Evenepoel (Belgium) are also among the favorites. Roglic is certainly good enough for a podium finish. However, the Slovenian has little chance against his fellow countryman in top form, as does Evenepoel, who is making his Tour debut.

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The forced break after his fall could help Jonas Vingegaard

The dominant winner of the past two years is only a limited favorite this year – Jonas Vingegaard still has a good chance of winning the third yellow jersey in Paris and numerous new lion cuddly toys for his daughter Frida. The Dane will start on Saturday “healthy and motivated,” said one of the sports directors at Visma-Lease a Bike.

But also that the preparation was “to say the least, anything but ideal”. No wonder, Vingegaard’s fall in the Tour of the Basque Country in April left him in hospital for twelve days with broken ribs and a lung injury – not good conditions for 21 stages of extreme exertion that pushes even perfectly healthy riders to their limits.

Vingegaard has not yet produced any race results this year. However, he could bring enough strength and motivation from the high-altitude training camp. The long break also indicates a thorough recovery process – and sometimes rest can be the best preparation for athletes who are always training on the fine line between optimum and overload.

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2024 will be the year of Primož Roglič – because experience wins

Experience wins. Primož Roglič is already 34 and this year’s Tour will probably be his last chance to finish at the top again. For this he has switched to the German team BORA-hansgrohe, which has also strengthened itself financially this year: Sponsor Red Bull is supposed to “give him wings”.

Roglič has tour victories under his belt. He proved this by winning the Tour of Spain from 2019 to 2021, almost winning the Tour in 2020 and taking first place in the Giro d’Italia last year. With Alexander Vlasov and Jai Hindley, he has strong riders on his team who could also ride in the classification, but will put themselves at his service.

Yes, normally Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar would be the clear favorites. But this tour is not normal: this time Pogačar already has the Tour of Italy under his belt. Vingegaard and his team are badly hit by injuries. Roglič, on the other hand, is in top form and has won the Dauphiné, the most important preparatory race, by a clear margin. 2024 is his year.