After his Giro victory, the Slovenian is expected to win the double in France. Pogacar is threatened by cross-team alliances against him – and dissonance within his own team.
Once upon a time there was a myth in cycling. Winning the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in the same year was considered impossible in this millennium.
Whenever the winners of the Tour of Italy tried to do the double in France a few weeks later, they failed miserably. Gilberto Simoni lost more than two and a half hours in 2003. Denis Mentschow finished 51st in 2009. Ivan Basso was unrecognizable at the Tour in 2010, and Alberto Contador was only a shadow of his former self in 2011. Ryder Hesjedal gave up after a week in 2012. Chris Froome lost to his teammate Geraint Thomas in 2018.
Marco Pantani’s last double success in 1998 was seen in retrospect as more of a warning, because the Italian was doping himself with all the substances at his disposal at the time. And immediately afterwards he fell into a life crisis that ended tragically with his early death five years later. To put it bluntly: There is a curse over the Giro-Tour double.
«Never felt so good on the bike»
In 2024, the myth seems to be history before the biggest cycling race in the world has even begun. As if it were the most natural thing in the world, the experts are currently declaring Tadej Pogacar the favorite for the Tour de France, which begins in Florence on Saturday. The Slovenian may have the Giro in his legs. But there and in all the other races of the year he seemed so confident and relaxed, at times almost under-challenged, that hardly anyone believes his strength could suddenly wane.
At the Strade Bianche in March, Pogacar won after an 82-kilometer solo. At the Tour of Catalonia in April, he attacked and waited behind a bush until the peloton had passed, and despite such antics, he won four of seven stages and the overall classification. At the Giro, finally, it was clear that as soon as he pushed the pace, his rivals stopped even trying to keep up.
His manager at Team UAE, Joxean Fernández Matxín, recently bluffed a little. He declared the winner of the 2022 and 2023 editions, Jonas Vingegaard, the favorite despite his serious fall in April. Pogacar was tired after the Giro, Matxín claimed.
Pogacar himself is not interested in mind games of this kind. “It looks like I’ve made a step forward since the Giro,” he said in an interview on Wednesday. His form is even better than expected. “To be honest, I’ve never felt so good on the bike.” The UAE team published the conversation in this form on its website. This also shows that Pogacar is currently even winning out against PR strategists within the team who would prefer to impose a certain understatement on him.
The 25-year-old also recovered well from a Covid infection during the final preparations, and was back on the bike after just one day off from training. Some are already waving the white flag. “The Tour will be decided within three or four days, Pogacar will dismantle the field and leave Vingegaard behind,” said the head of the FDJ team, Marc Madiot, to the newspaper “L’Equipe”.
Madiot’s prediction is supported by the fact that the first sections are more difficult than ever before. On Saturday, six second and third category mountains are on the agenda, and on Sunday, just before the finish, there is a ramp with a gradient of more than 10 percent. On Tuesday, the field will cross the 2,642-meter-high Col du Galibier. Larger time gaps between the favorites are certainly possible here. And yet the statement by the French team boss illustrates above all the absurd dimensions that the expectations of Pogacar have assumed.
He should complete the double and in this respect be on a par with cycling’s greatest legends, such as Fausto Coppi, Eddy Merckx and Bernard Hinault. He should also beat his opponents in the first few days. And as usual, he should indulge in a little silly behavior in the start and finish areas – there has to be enough time on a historic mission.
Expectations could become a problem. Provoking Pogacar on and off the road, putting on a spectacle almost every day, is an obvious maneuver. The hope is that he will take the predictions to heart and actually squander his energy with wild attacks from Saturday onwards.
On top of that, it is not a given that Pogacar will receive the full support of his own environment. In his remarkable interview on Wednesday, he revealed that there had been discord last year that had previously remained hidden from the public. Many things had not gone well in the build-up phase after his fall in the Liège-Bastogne-Liège race, he said: “I saw who was there to help me and who wasn’t.” In preparation for the 2023 Tour de France, there was “a certain disappointment and negative energy.”
He left it open whether the problems within the team have been resolved. One thing is certain: the longer a race like the Tour de France lasts, the more atmospheric tensions become. Unrest could arise at UAE, for example, if Pogacar’s helpers Adam Yates and João Almeida, who recently achieved a double victory at the Tour de Suisse, develop their own ambitions for podium places.
Vingegaard was not allowed to move for twelve days
There is much to suggest that the Tour de France will not be decided in the first four days as Madiot predicted – but only in the last three. The final weekend is probably more difficult than ever before. On the third to last day, three passes have to be negotiated, including the 2802 meter high Cime de la Bonette. On Saturday there is another mountain stage with 4600 meters of elevation and on Sunday there is an undulating time trial from Monaco to Nice.
The finale is Vingegaard’s cup of tea: in 2022 he inflicted a decisive defeat on Pogacar on a high alpine stage, and in 2023 he distanced him in a time trial that was also undulating. The Dane could also benefit from the fact that he still has time to improve his form on the way to the final showdown.
In April, the captain of Team Visma broke several ribs and his collarbone during the Tour of the Basque Country, and his lung also collapsed. He was not allowed to move in hospital for twelve days. It was not until four weeks after the accident that he was able to start training again.
His team’s representatives are not being coquettish when they dampen expectations and repeatedly stress that Vingegaard cannot be at the level he has been in the past two years. He himself describes being on the starting line as a success. Everything else is a bonus.
To make matters worse, the Dane’s fall was not an isolated event; Team Visma has been plagued by bad luck this season. Helpers Dylan van Baarle and Steven Kruijswijk are out injured. Most recently, Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss had to miss out; Covid hit him harder. He will be replaced by Bart Lemmen, a former army commander who, at 28, is riding for a team in the highest category for the first time. Visma is competing with a team of reservists in the truest sense of the word.
The decisive factor could be whether Pogacar’s opponents are willing to form temporary alliances. In 2022, Visma managed to wear down the Slovenian on the way to the Col du Granon with alternating attacks. In 2024, the density of the squad is unlikely to allow this strategy. Things would look different if, for example, Belgian Remco Evenepoel and Vingegaard’s former teammate Primoz Roglic were involved. The Slovenian now rides for the Bora team, which has recently partnered with Red Bull, but a collaboration could benefit both.
Vingegaard has memorized every curve of the 33.7-kilometer time trial course on which the Tour de France ends on July 21. He wants to repeat his victory from last year, despite everything. And he could revive the myth: the double is damn hard to achieve.