What is the best way to take a penalty?

Choosing the right corner is just one factor for a successful penalty. Scientists have also examined individual characteristics of the players and overarching factors such as nationality or spectators in the stadiums. These are the results:

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Age, position, preferred foot – many individual factors could influence the success of a penalty. However, the study results are ambiguous.

Psychological variables are more important. A good penalty taker must be able to handle the high pressure in this situation. Studies show that the success rate of a penalty is reduced by an average of 6 percent when the pressure is particularly high. Regardless of the quality of the taker.

The importance of the quality factor is also controversial. Some studies see a positive influence of player quality on the probability of scoring a goal. Other studies suggest that star players with a higher load on their shoulders can perform worse. Examples are Roberto Baggio in the 1994 World Cup final or Bastian Schweinsteiger in the 2012 Champions League final. Both failed at the decisive moment.

Another factor that a player can hardly influence is his team. Players from teams that have lost previous penalty shootouts have a hit rate that is 10 to 20 percentage points lower.

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A penalty begins long before the point. To be precise, when the previous shooter shoots the ball.

The walk from the centre circle to the penalty spot is nerve-racking even for the best players. Bastian Schweinsteiger said after the 2012 Champions League semi-final that he had briefly “lost his balls” on the way to the penalty spot, but found them again in time for the run-up. He scored. Shooters should either hurry up or take their time. Studies show that short (37 seconds) transition times are best, while a middle path is less favourable.

Variability is important: a good shooter should be unpredictable and change his placement regularly. It sounds banal, but it is not always implemented.

 

One factor that is difficult to control is the referee: if he intervenes in the positioning of the ball, this can reduce the chances of success. The time spent waiting for the referee’s signal also plays a role. It is advantageous if the referee releases the ball quickly (less than 0.4 seconds).

The run-up should not be too short. Studies show that too much eye contact with the goalie is also bad for the shooter. The proportion of penalties saved is then 11 percentage points higher.

Even after his own penalty, a shooter can still help his team: Extensive celebration after a converted penalty can have a positive effect on his teammates. They are infected by the emotions and then play with greater self-confidence and a more positive attitude.

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A well-placed penalty shot into the upper corner of the goal is practically unstoppable for goalies. However, the goalie can influence the probability of a penalty being successful. Research recommendations include: He should decide on an action early on. Jump to the left, jump to the right or stay in the middle.

In contrast to the shooters, the goalie has little to lose. Nobody expects him to save the penalty. But in the best case scenario, he can become a hero.

Jerzy Dudek’s performance in the penalty shootout in the 2005 Champions League final is legendary. The Liverpool goalkeeper jumped on the line, waved his arms and wiggled his legs. This is how he saved the penalties from Milan stars Andrea Pirlo and Andrei Shevchenko. Liverpool won. Studies show that such actions actually lead to poorly placed penalties.

 

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For some, the decisive moment in a penalty shootout is the coin toss before it. It is said that the team that takes the shot first has an advantage. The idea is that whoever shoots and scores first increases the pressure on the opponent.

 

Some studies have shown that the team that starts the penalty shootout wins in 55 to 60 percent of cases. However, the results are not clear. Other studies have found no advantage to the first shot. If you lose the coin toss, you shouldn’t let it put you under too much pressure.

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A penalty shootout consists of at least two sets of five shots. Studies show that the success rate is highest at the beginning and then decreases. Possible explanations:

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Hostile fans in sight, a chorus of whistles in the ears: converting a penalty in the opponent’s stadium is one of the most difficult tasks for a football player. The pressure is particularly great in such situations.

 

During the Corona pandemic and the ghost games, scientists were able to quantify the spectator factor in penalty kicks. In fact, fans in stadiums have a positive effect on the home team’s success rate and a negative effect on the away team’s. In ghost games, the probability of the away team missing a penalty fell by 20 percent.

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Finally, the most important question for some remains: what role does nationality play? And that brings us to you, dear English people. The Three Lions have lost seven of nine penalty shootouts at World Cup and European Championship finals, most recently the 2021 European Championship final against Italy.

 

However, scientists found no significant differences between the success rates of penalty takers from different nations. They compared 4,700 penalties taken by 1,100 players in the major European leagues. English players scored from the penalty spot just as often as players from other countries. So in principle they can. Why do the English lose so often in penalty shootouts at major tournaments? It remains a mystery.

An overview of the studies evaluated for this article can be found here.

This article was written as part of a module project on the topic of “telling stories visually” in the Data Design & Art degree program at the Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts. Imah Rahim was supervised by Jonas Oesch, visual journalist at the NZZ, and the designer Marina Bräm. Collaboration: Dario Veréb.