Elon Musk plans: astronauts on Mars – within 7 years

SpaceX plans to launch five unmanned missions to Mars within two years, the CEO announced Elon Musk yesterday (first) on the social network X (formerly Twitter). Earlier this month, Musk noted that the first Starship spacecraft would be headed for Mars in two years, when “the next transfer window between Earth and Mars will open.”

Musk added that the schedule for launching manned missions depends on the success of the first unmanned missions. If the unmanned missions manage to land safely on the surface of Mars, the manned missions will be launched in about four years. On the other hand, if they encounter challenges, the manned launches will be postponed for another two years.

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Musk, who is known for frequent changes to his timelines regarding the readiness of the Starship spacecraft, said earlier this year that the first spacecraft to land on Mars without a crew would arrive within five years, and the first people would land on the Red Planet within seven years.

In June of this year, the Starship spacecraft managed to survive a hot hypersonic return from space, and achieved a significant achievement when it successfully landed in the Indian Ocean after a full test trip around the Earth – an attempt that was only successful on the fourth attempt.

Musk sees the Starship spacecraft as a key to realizing his vision, according to which a next-generation multi-purpose spacecraft must be built that can carry people and cargo to the moon within the next decade, and then fly to Mars.

At the beginning of this year, NASA postponed the Artemis 3 mission, which was intended to carry out the first manned landing on the moon in half a century, to 2026 – using SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft. The mission was originally planned for the end of 2025.

The Japanese billionaire Yusaku Mazawa also canceled in June of this year a private mission around the moon that he had purchased, which was supposed to be carried out with SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft, due to uncertainty regarding the progress of the spacecraft’s development.

For all of Musk’s grand ambitions, the journey to Mars is unlikely to be smooth sailing. The flight to outer space is especially challenging when it comes to Mars, with significant physical challenges that must be overcome. For example, one of the most prominent difficulties is dealing with the dangerous cosmic radiation that can damage technological systems and the health of the astronauts. In addition, the question of supply and existence on Mars is also critical. There is currently no satisfactory solution that would ensure a long-term existence for a manned crew on this planet, especially given the fact that living conditions there are much more difficult than on the Moon.

The flight to Mars takes between six and nine months, depending on the relative position of Earth and Mars at the time of launch. To land on Mars, the spacecraft must contend with the planet’s thin atmosphere, which is only a small percentage of Earth’s. This fact makes it difficult to slow down the spacecraft during the landing stages, and requires the use of advanced technologies such as supersonic parachutes or deceleration rockets.

The weather on Mars is extremely extreme, with temperatures that can drop to minus 100 degrees Celsius at night, and strong winds that produce large dust storms that can last for months. The astronauts will be required to wear special space suits that protect against the extreme cold and radiation, and will have to rely on artificial oxygen sources for survival outside the spacecraft. In addition, there is a need to develop advanced systems to create water and food locally, since bringing all the supplies from the country is impractical.

In light of the frequent changes in the schedules and the technological challenges that SpaceX faces, it is difficult to assess whether Musk’s vision of sending people to Mars will actually be realized in the defined times, or whether we will again encounter postponements as we have seen with past missions. On the other hand, Musk is recognized as a person who promises “and fulfills” many of his ambitions and his company has become the main player in the world in space flight today.