Are diesel and gasoline engines losing the race with new technologies, primarily electric vehicles, or will we still have to wait for their demise for a long time, even when the deadline expires in 2035 when, it is thought, they should become a dying species on European and Croatian roads?
The shortcomings of the European plan, according to which internal combustion engines would become history by 2035, are becoming increasingly visible. When you walk into a car dealership of German premium brands in Croatia today, the salesperson will tell you without hesitation that they still sell more diesels than gasoline or electric vehicles.
The expansion of the sale of fully electric vehicles is catching on even in developed Europe, especially among us who are just trying to become a member of the richer club of the old continent. The elite manufacturers are still relatively indifferent to this struggle, although they will outwardly show that they care about a brighter tomorrow, while the ready-made manufacturers are frightened by the moment – a time when the Chinese are advancing inexorably. and with the price they destroy everything that the Europeans have been thinking up for years.
Don’t želite diesels? Ok, we are sending you gasoline hybrids with a price and equipment that the Europeans cannot compete with. Don’t even want gas stations? Ok, we will come up with something and we will send it to you soon, the motto is the manufacturers of the Far East who react in a flash to everything that European manufacturers need years to get started.
The matter is more or less known: the negotiators of the Council of the EU and the European Parliament not so long ago reached an agreement on a law that foresees the cessation of sales of new gasoline or diesel vehicles from 2035. Već then it was known that the historic agreement would deal a major blow to the largest European economy and the cradle of the internal combustion engine, Germany.
It didn’t take long for the heavy machinery, which annually turns over billions of euros, to respond.
Senior Vice President of BMW Brand and Product Management Bernd Korber would be happy to say goodbye to diesels, but he is not even thinking about the complete abolition of internal combustion engines.
“Diesel’s diminishing advantages compared to other fuels such as gasoline and alternative power sources lead to a reduced base of users who choose diesel primarily due to personal preference rather than clear advantages,” says Korber.
In other words, gasoline engines are becoming so efficient that diesel is no longer an obvious choice for the thrifty buyer. Progress in plug-in hybrid and electric drives represents another blow to the coffin of the diesel engine, he believes.
But is it really so, especially in Croatia?
From January to the end of September, 27,833 gasoline-powered cars were sold in Croatia, or 53.8 percent of the total sales. In second place are hybrids, with 11,792 vehicles sold, or 22.8 percent, and diesels in third place with sales of 9,547 vehicles, or 18.4 percent. 1,598 fully electric vehicles were sold in nine months, which is 3.1 percent of the total sales in the previous part of the year. As a reminder, in the first nine months of 2024, 51,782 new passenger vehicles were sold in Croatia.
While diesels held more than 50 percent of total sales for years, now petrols are in that place, diesels have dropped to third place. But when it comes to Lijepa naša, even that is not too big of a problem – the problem is that the average Croatian buyer, when buying a used car, first looks in the “diesels” section. Estimates are that 80 percent of used vehicles sold in our country are diesels.
2035? Čist utopia.
Critics of the EU and global plans immediately warned that the removal of gasoline and diesel vehicles from the roads by 2035 is a true utopia, in addition to the fact that for many EU citizens, electric vehicles are still too expensive. Thus, the new Euro 7 regulation suggests that diesel cars will be driven on European roads at least until 2050, and probably longer.
But if the original plan remains in force, after 2035, citizens will be able to drive cars with internal combustion engines and even buy used gasoline and diesel cars.
Will the premium brands therefore also revise their plans, perhaps hastily adopted?
Audi has announced that it will stop developing new models with internal combustion engines from 2026, while BMW expects that by 2030 half of all its cars sold in the world will be fully electric.
Renault wants a fully electric offer from 2030, and Mercedes plans to become a fully electric brand by the end of the decade “where market conditions allow”.
From 2028, Opel will rely entirely on electric battery vehicles in its main market in Europe. The current plan includes that after that year, there will be no more Opels with gasoline and diesel engines.
Mercedes-Benz planned to produce only e-cars from 2030, and moreć in the next year, the German manufacturer planned to sell the same number of e-cars and plug-in hybrids as those vehicles with a classic internal combustion engine.
But even Mercedes is far from achieving that goal. That this is the case can be seen from the fact that Mercedes boss Ola Källenius personally buried the “Electric Only” strategy not so long ago.
Otherwise, sales data published by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) show that diesel had a market share of only 13.6 percent last year, when electric vehicles rose to 14. .6 percent. By March 2024, diesels had fallen to 12.8 percent on the European Union markets.
Is the end of the diesel era coming? No, especially in Croatia
Is the end of diesel engines in sight? We are not really sure about that, especially when it comes to Croatia.
The media reported that the Norwegian Road Traffic Information Council announced that for the first time in the Norwegian automotive history, the country’s fleet has more fully electric cars than cars that only use gasoline engines for propulsion. Some media, however, forgot one “little thing”.
There are a total of 2,872,652 passenger cars on the roads in Norway, of which 754,303 are fully electric. This means that more than a quarter (26.26 percent) of all cars in Norway are electric vehicles. On the other hand, there are 753,905 cars with a gasoline engine and without hybrid technology in circulation in Norway.
However, the roads in Norway are currently dominated by diesel cars. There are almost a million of them, that’s not 999,715. Diesels make up 34.8 percent of the fleet, and there are more than 10,000 cars with plug-in hybrid and hybrid powertrains that have a diesel engine.
The Norwegians have a developed network of charging stations, while at the same time, Croatian owners of electric vehicles probably have their hair raised when, especially in the full tourist season, they have to plan a trip from, say, southern Dalmatia to Zagreb. Or vice versa, it doesn’t matter.
The average Croatian customer buying a new vehicle today has a big problem of what to choose. If he buys a used vehicle, we have seen, the easiest way to buy a diesel. But new? Diesels are now being trampled on even though they consume less than petrol, they are safer and drive better, especially when it comes to more expensive models. Electric vehicles, if we put the rest aside primarily the average and miserable autonomy, are not accompanied by adequate infrastructure.
“The electrification bubble has deflated,” said traffic expert and professor Žjko Marušić, adding that gasoline engines are grossly inferior to diesel engines. He said that this turning away from diesel is a product of geopolitics, since gasoline is a by-product of oil processing, that is, the distillation of oil, and that must be “instilled” into someone.
“The diesel is nicer to drive, it is safer on the road, although it is more expensive to maintain a diesel than a gasoline one, but that is their only complaint,” said Maruši, adding, however, that it is true that diesels emit more č ađe than gasoline ones.
When asked if there is a possibility that European roads, including Croatian ones, will be ruled by electric cars from 2035, he says the following – “I don’t think there is a chance for that, maybe until 2050, but even that it will be difficult”.
He said that currently there is simply not enough electricity for such a thing, and the production of electricity, which is not produced entirely from renewable sources, harms the environment, more than diesel and gasoline engines.
Accordingly, the production of copper is questionable, and the average electric car uses significantly more copper than a “regular” car.
In the next ten years, many things can still change, but if you buy a new vehicle today, be sure that it, be it diesel or gasoline, could be driven in Croatia for its entire working life.