More than 30 pathogens could cause a pandemic

In the world more than 30 pathogens are known that could cause a new pandemic.

When the World Health Organization WHO updated its list of the most serious pandemic threats at the turn of August, it was more than twice as long as before.

Included are, for example, influenza A virus, dengue virus and m, or monkeypox virus.

Those on the list are very easily contagious and cause a serious disease against which not everyone has the opportunity to receive vaccination or treatment.

More than 200 researchers evaluated the dangerousness of 1,600 pathogens from this point of view over the course of two years.

Most of the worst threats are viruses. Whole genera of viruses appeared on the list, including the sarbecoviruses that belong to the corona viruses. They include, among other things, sars-cov-2, the cause of the corona pandemic.

Another group of coronaviruses involved are the merbecoviruses, which include the mers transmitted from camels to humans.

One new on the list is m-pox, which caused epidemics in 2022 and is now spreading in Central Africa.

The list also includes the variola virus, a relative of the m-pox virus, which causes smallpox.

The disease was successfully eradicated from the world in the 1980s, but the virus is still stored in laboratories.

If the smallpox virus were to escape, it could cause a pandemic because vaccination against it has been discontinued. It would also be possible to use the virus as a biological weapon.

Threatening the list includes half a dozen influenza A viruses, for example the H5 subtype. It causes bird flu, which has infected cattle in the United States this year.

There are also two viruses carried by rodents, which have jumped to humans and occasionally spread between humans as well.

The bat-borne nipah virus, which caused encephalitis in humans, remained on the list because it is deadly and highly contagious in animals. There is currently no treatment for it.

Only five bacteria have been classified as pandemic threats. They cause cholera, plague, pneumonia, dysentery and diarrhea.

Money of the viruses on the list only occur in certain regions, but have the potential to spread globally.

“There is no single area that poses a particular risk,” says In the journal Nature virology Naomi Forrester-Sotowho participated in the preparation of the listing.

A researcher working at the British Pirbright Institute says that the list is justified based on current knowledge. Some of the pathogens on the list may never cause an epidemic.

On the other hand, those that are not thought of now may turn out to be dangerous in the future.

“We have almost never been able to predict the next pathogen,” says Forrester-Soto.

The researchers also compiled a list of prototype viruses that could serve as model viruses for vaccine development. When a vaccine has been developed for one virus of the genus, it is usually easier to develop a vaccine for another as well.

Published in Tiede magazine 11/2024