AI could multiply electronic waste a thousandfold in this decade, equivalent to 11,000 airplanes

A recent study published in ‘Nature Computational Science’ warns that the uncontrolled growth of artificial intelligence (Generative AI) could multiply electronic waste a thousandfold before 2030. If no measures are taken to reduce the environmental impact of the equipment used in data centers, this waste could reach between 1.2 and 5 million tons, according to researchers, which could mean the equivalent of more than 11,000 loaded Boeing 747 airplanes.

Large technology companies, such as Google, Microsoft and Meta, are immersed in an unprecedented race to develop new AI-based tools. However, this drive for innovation is also leaving a significant environmental footprint. Training and operating AI models require massive computational power that not only increases energy consumption but also generates a huge amount of electronic waste, mainly due to early obsolescence of equipment.

“I have deep concerns about the competition between the rate of expansion of generative AI and the adoption of the circular economy. Given the unprecedented increase in demand for this technology, to win this battle, shock measures should be implemented imminently.”Peng Wang, researcher at the Institute of Urban Environment of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in Xiamen, and one of the authors of the study, told the Spanish newspaper ‘El País’.

A growing problem: data centers

The data centers where these sophisticated AI models are stored and processed generate a huge amount of waste, including toxic metals such as lead and chromium. According to the study, if the industry continues at the current pace, lWaste could reach alarming proportions, increasing by up to 1,000 times in the next decade. In practical terms, this would be equivalent to throwing away between 2.1 and 13.3 billion iPhone 15 Pro-sized devices.

Researchers have identified four growth scenarios for generative AI, which They range from moderate expansion to aggressive growth similar to what platforms like Facebook experienced. In the worst case, the increase in waste would reach levels never seen before, worsening the environmental crisis.

Hazardous materials and geopolitical tensions

Equipment used in data centers contains hazardous materials which, if not managed properly, can have a devastating impact on the environment. Furthermore, the geopolitical tensionssuch as restrictions on the import of semiconductors, could make the situation worse. Delays in the adoption of new, more efficient technologies could further increase the amount of equipment reaching the end of its useful life.

A year of delay in obtaining advanced semiconductors, according to the study, could generate up to 5.7 million additional tons of electronic waste. This situation would mainly affect regions such as North America, Europe and East Asia, where most data centers are concentrated, although much of this waste would end up in Africa and Asia.

Solutions based on the circular economy

Given this alarming projection, the authors of the study suggest several strategies to limit waste generation. The most effective would be to increase the useful life of hardware used in data centers, which would dramatically reduce the amount of equipment discarded each year. According to his estimates, extend the useful life of this equipment in just one year could avoid the generation of more than three million tons of waste.

In addition, they propose the reuse of some key components, such as memory or communication modules, which could reduce waste by 42%. However, some experts, such as Ana Valdivia from the University of Oxford, point out that this option is not always viable, since recycling certain components such as GPUs is extremely expensive and complex.

“GPUs cannot be inserted into a circular economy because it is very expensive to recycle their components, something that I do not see discussed in the article [de Wang y sus colegas]. “100% of a GPU ends up incinerated or in a landfill”said the expert to the aforementioned newspaper.

The hidden value of waste

Despite the challenges, researchers highlight that e-waste contains a considerable amount of valuable materials, such as gold, silver and platinum. If recycled properly, These materials could have an estimated value of between $14 billion and $28 billion, which could help finance the sustainability of the sector..

However, the scientists also caution that certain key aspects, such as server cooling systems, have not been fully analyzed in the study, even though they represent a significant portion of the waste generated.

The race to develop generative AI is driving unprecedented technological advances, but it also poses enormous environmental challenges. If immediate measures are not implemented to reduce the generation of electronic waste, the environmental impact could be devastating. The key, according to experts, is to adopt circular economy models that extend the useful life of hardware and encourage proper recycling of hazardous materials.