This year will almost certainly be the first in which the 1.5 degree limit of the Paris Climate Agreement is exceeded

Present year is with almost complete certainty the hottest in the measured history of the planet and the first in which the average temperature on earth was more than 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial times. This is evident from the latest measurement data published by the EU’s Copernicus climate service.

“This is a milestone in the measurement of global temperatures and should encourage greater ambition at the upcoming COP29 climate conference,” says Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess in the bulletin.

The UN COP29 climate conference will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, next week.

October was the second hottest October in the measurement history. Only October last year was warmer than that. The earth’s surface temperature in October averaged almost 15.3 degrees, i.e. about 0.8 degrees above the average for the years 1991–2020. October was 1.65 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times. In the last 16 months, October was the 15th month in which the average temperature exceeded the 1.5 mark.

The average temperature in 2024 is estimated to be at least 1.55 degrees above pre-industrial times. Last year, the corresponding figure was still 1.48 degrees.

1.5 degrees was the recommended limit set in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, at which it would be good to stop global warming in order to avoid its worst effects.

In Europe, October was 1.23 degrees above the 1991–2020 average. The October that ended was the fifth warmest in the measurement history.

The October heat record was experienced in 2022, when the month was 1.92 degrees warmer than average.