China could surpass America in the race to send people to the Moon

Will the next astronaut to set foot on the Moon be American or Chinese? In total, 12 Americans landed on the surface of the Moon from 1969 to 1972, while no Chinese have ever set foot here. Currently, both the US and China are working towards the goal of sending people to the Moon within this decade.

However, the US program is lagging, partly because astronaut suits and lunar landing vehicles are not ready. Meanwhile, China has committed to sending astronauts to the Moon by 2030 and the country usually sticks to the schedule. Just a few years ago, such a scenario seemed impossible. But for now, it is likely that China will be ahead of the US in a race where the US usually leads.

NASA’s Artemis Moon Program

NASA works with many commercial and international partners to share costs. They planned to return Americans to the Moon in three missions. In November 2022, during the Artemis I mission, NASA launched the Orion spacecraft (not carrying people) to fly around the Moon. However, Orion’s heat shield was significantly damaged when the spacecraft crashed through Earth’s atmosphere on the return trip. NASA engineers are trying to find a solution before the Artemis II mission.

Artemis II, expected to deploy at the end of 2025, is similar to Artemis I but Orion will carry 4 more astronauts. At Artemis III, astronauts landed on the Moon. On this third mission, NASA will send the first man and woman to the Moon. One of them will also be the first person of color to set foot on this celestial body.

Initially, Artemis III was scheduled to launch this year, but the timeline was pushed back many times. Currently, the mission will take place no earlier than September 2026. According to a December 2023 assessment, there is even a 30% chance that Artemis III will not launch before February 2028.

The development of a lander to carry American astronauts from orbit to the lunar surface is also behind schedule. In 2021, Elon Musk’s SpaceX company was awarded the contract to build this vehicle. The ship will be built based on the world’s most powerful launch system – Starship.

On October 13, 2024, Starship successfully performed its fifth test flight, but still needs to overcome many challenges before it can land astronauts on the lunar surface. Starship also cannot fly there directly but must be refueled in Earth orbit. SpaceX needs to test refueling and landing on the Moon with an empty spacecraft before Artemis III takes place.

China’s Moon Program

China’s space program appears to be progressing rapidly, with no significant setbacks or delays. In April 2024, China announced that it would send astronauts to the Moon by 2030. The country has undergone an extraordinary journey since sending the first astronaut to space in 2003. operating space stations since 2011 and achieving many important achievements through the lunar exploration program named Chang’e.

The Chang’e ships brought lunar samples back to Earth, even samples from the far side of the Moon. They also test technologies that could play an important role in helping humans land. Chang’e will next land on the Moon’s south pole, an area that has attracted great interest because of the presence of water ice in dark craters.

This amount of water can help maintain the operation of the Moon base and be converted into rocket fuel. Producing rocket fuel locally will be cheaper than transporting it from Earth, making lunar exploration easier. It is also for these reasons that Artemis III aims to land at the south pole. This is also the area where China and the US plan to build bases.

On September 28, 2024, China introduced a light and flexible suit for astronauts walking on the Moon. The suit is designed to protect the wearer from extreme temperature changes and solar radiation. Meanwhile, the company that produces the Artemis Moon suit, Axiom Space, is having to modify some aspects of the reference design that NASA provided.