Scientists warn that sea level can rise to 1.9 meters for 2100

If the rate of Global CO2 emissions It continues to increase and reach a high emission scenario, it is very likely that the global sea levels will increase between 0.5 and 1.9 meters by 2100.

It is the projection made with a new methodology by an interdisciplinary team of researchers from the NTU Singapore and the Technological University of Delft (TU DELFT), Netherlands. The upper end of the range of this projection is 90 centimeters higher than the last global projection of the United Nations of 0.6 to 1.0 meters.

The very likely range (90% probability that the event will occur), informed by the NTU team in the Earth’s Future magazine, complements the sea level increase projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, which only evaluated the probability of projections to a probable range (66% probability).

The current sea level projections are based on a variety of methods to model climatic processes. Some include well -understood phenomena, such as the melting of glaciers, while others incorporate more uncertain events, such as the abrupt collapse of ice platforms.

As a result, these models produce variable projections, which makes it difficult to reliably estimate the extreme increase in sea level. This ambiguity in the projections of different methods has prevented the IPCC from providing very likely ranges for sea level projections, a valuable standard for risk management.

New melting approach

To overcome this challenge and address uncertainties in the current projections of the increase in sea level, NTU researchers developed a new and improved projection method, known as a “fusion” approach. This approach combines the strengths of the existing models with the opinions of experts, offering a clearer and more reliable image of the future increase in sea level.

The main author of the study, Dr. Benjamin Grandey, principal researcher of the Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences (SPMS) of the NTU, said in a statement: “Our new approach addresses a key topic in the science of sea level: different methods to project the increase in sea level ”. “The results are usually very variable. By combining these different approaches in a single fusion projection, we can estimate the uncertainty associated with the future increase in sea level and quantify the very likely range of increasing sea level. ”

The research team believes that its new method fills a critical void of reliable information, complementing the latest IPCC report.

The interdisciplinary team of physicists and scientists of the NTU climate created the fusion model integrating statistical methods with expert judgments. They used data on established projections presented in the sixth IPCC evaluation report, which simulate possible future scenarios under different emission trajectories.

The researchers combined different kinds of projections reported in the IPCC report.

They incorporated “average trust” and “low trust” projections, complemented with expert evaluations, to take into account not understood extreme processes, such as sudden changes in the behavior of the ice layer. A weighting system was applied, prioritizing the most reliable average confidence data, but including less confidence projections to address uncertainties.

The projections based on this merger approach suggest that, in a low emissions scenario, it is very likely that the global average sea level will increase between 0.3 and 1.0 meters by 2100. The probable range of the CPI projected that the level Global sea would increase between 0.3 and 0.6 meters.

In a high -emission scenario, the NTU fusion model projects that the global average level of the sea will most likely increase between 0.5 and 1.9 meters by 2100. The probable range of the IPCC projected an increase of between 0.6 and 1 , 0 meters.

The widest ranges indicated by the NTU model suggest that the above estimates may have underestimated the potential of extreme results, with levels that may increase up to 90 cm more than the upper end of the probable range of the IPCC under a high emissions trajectory.

Current broadcasting trends suggest that the world is in a trajectory between low -emission emissions scenarios and scenarios.

“Our new projections, very likely, highlight the magnitude of uncertainties with regard to the increase in sea level,” said Dr. Grandey. “The 1.9 meter high -end projection underlines the need for decision makers to plan the critical infrastructure accordingly.

“More importantly, these results emphasize the importance of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”