The impact probabilities of asteroid 2024 YR4 against Earth in 2032 increase, according to NASA

The NASA It has re -evaluated its calculations up to 2.27%, while the ESA proposes 2,3. Both statistics assume that the possibility that this body ends up finally passing by without supposing any threat is more than 98%.

The asteroid, which was discovered on the 27th, measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter (in the case of hitting the planet, it would not cause a global catastrophe), according to the latest data published by ESA, although they will be refined to measure that there are new observations.

The Coordination Center of objects close to the Earth of ESA reported that it will make a daily update on the asteroid, the leader in the list of bodies that raise some risk for the earthlings. The data will be updated according to the information of the world and space observers.

ESA remembers that the asteroid has a probability of impact that “classifies as an event that ‘deserves the attention of astronomers’, which has triggered an intense observation activity in the Community of Planetary Defense.”

Two specialized groups of the United Nations are studying the trajectory of this body: the international asteroid alert network, and the Space Missions Advisory Group (SMPAG). These two organizations were created to coordinate the international response to such a threat. The SMPAG coordinates the technical knowledge of the main space agencies, including the US NASA and the European (ESA), which presides over this group. Its function is to recommend a specific response to dangerous asteroids, including its study and the proposal of mitigation or diversion measures, it was necessary.

Impact studies

2024 YR4 is a “relatively small” object, although it is still to be specified its size, so if it impacts with the earth, damage could be similar to those caused in 1908 by a meteorite in Tunguska (Siberia), where it devastated An extension similar to the Spanish island of Gran Canaria.

If the rock is below 50 meters, SMPAG would recommend the evacuation of the impact zone, says Cano, but if it exceeds that size, other options would also be studied.

The American Mission Dart has already demonstrated in 2022, with the impact of a probe against small asteroid Dimorphos, that the kinetic impactor technology was viable to potentially defend the land of the threat of an object from space.