The impact probabilities of asteroid 2024 YR4 against Earth in 2032 increase, according to NASA

Preliminary astronomer analyzes indicate that, if a collision occurs, the potential impact strip covers from the east of the Pacific Ocean to southern Asia, including parts of South America and Africa. Specifically, the most exposed areas include Colombia, Venezuela and northern Brazil, as well as center of Africa, India and Myanmar. Although a large part of the estimated trajectory is on the sea, it also involves densely populated areas.

An impact on the mainland could have devastating effects at the regional level, with an energy equivalent to several TNT megatons. On the other hand, if the asteroid exploded in the atmosphere, as happened in the Tunguska event in 1908, it could generate an expansive wave capable of sweeping thousands of square kilometers of vegetation and buildings. If it fell into the ocean, it could generate tsunamis that would affect coastal countries in South America, Africa or Asia.

Experts emphasize that impact probabilities are still low and that the trajectory could change as new observations are obtained. However, the fact that probability has increased in recent months instead of decreasing maintains active alert in the astronomical community.

In the event that the threat persists, the planetary defense could resort to mitigation strategies such as asteroid deviation through a kinetic impact, similar to NASA’s Dart mission in 2022. Meanwhile, international organizations such as the UN have intensified surveillance and continue to monitor the object in search of more precise data to refine their trajectory and evaluate real risks.

Despite uncertainty, scientists maintain confidence that continuous monitoring will discard danger in the coming years. Until then, asteroid 2024 YR4 remains one of the highest priorities in the planetary defense agenda.