Why is the earthquake difficult to predict correctly?

The 7.7 -degree strong earthquake occurred in central Myanmar on March 28, then a few minutes of 6.7 degrees of shock appeared, killing 1,700, destroying many buildings, collapsing bridges and damaging roads across the country. Before that, there was no warning information.

The earthquake in Myanmar caused Thailand to shake in many areas. The building is under construction in the capital Bangkok collapsed. Thai officials said at least 18 people were killed, and many were injured and missing. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra “is very angry about the delay of the emergency communication system”, according to The Nation. However, the General Director of the National Disaster Warning Center and the Ministry of Disaster Prevention and Reduction (DDPM) explained that “the earthquake is unpredictable.” On the page BBC, Scientists also said the earthquake could not be predicted.

Dr. Lucy Jones, a seismician working at the US Geological Survey Department (USGS), studied the risk of earthquakes and improved the ability to fight disaster for more than 3 decades. According to Jones, with 100,000 earthquakes that can be detected in the world every year, the fact that people want to warn is natural.

The Eureka area, a coastal city, 434 km north of San Francisco, can feel more than 700 earthquakes in last year alone. The land where Dmitruk guessed the earthquake occurred, one of the most powerful seismic areas in the United States. This is the place where three assists creating intersects, called Triple Junction Mendocino. The movement slides up, down or across each other between the tectonic plaques, causing the pressure to accumulate. When the pressure is released, a earthquake may occur.

According to Jones, predicting a earthquake will happen here very easily even though strong earthquakes 7 rare. USGS said only 11 such earthquakes or stronger from 1900. 5 earthquakes including the predicted Dmitruk event, occurring in the same area. Although Dmitruk predicts correctly, Jones emphasizes the ability to accurately predict very low earthquakes.

There are a series of complex geological factors leading to earthquakes. The size of the earthquake is formed while the event is happening. Scientists know the cause of the earthquake is due to a sudden movement along the broken line, but such an event prediction cannot be done in the near future. USGS can calculate the potential of earthquake in a specific area within a few years, but cannot be more accurate.

Geological records show that some of the largest earthquakes occur with a certain degree of frequency. The cascadia sinking zone slides 300 – 500 years, stirring regularly in the northwestern Pacific with a tsunami of 30.5 m high. While the San Andreas fault in Southern California is also the source of a hidden large earthquake, strong earthquakes occurred there 200 – 300 years.

Jones shared throughout her career, several thousand people used to remind her of the predictions of large earthquakes. The same situation seems to happen to Dmitruk, who has no scientific foundation. He has long predicted a big earthquake that will attack Alaska, Japan or archipelagos off New Zealand with a scale of global trade interrupting.

According to USGS, the useful earthquake prediction must include 3 obvious factors including time, location and earthquake scale. However, the timeline that Dmitruk has constantly changes. Sometimes, he said the earthquake would occur right before or after the inauguration of President Donald Trump. After that, he said it would certainly take place before 2030.

Although the earthquake is unpredictable, experts emphasize that it is necessary to prepare for the event. Each year, on the third day of October, millions of Americans participated in the largest earthquake exercise on Earth named The Great Shake Out. In addition, residents on the west coast of the United States use a phone warning system called Shakealert by USGS. The system operates through the detection of pressure wave emitted by earthquakes. Although it is unpredictable when the earthquake occurs in the far future, the system that issues a warning a few seconds can help save life.