Apple will become the first manufacturer of ‘smartphones’ globally, surpassing its main competitor for the first time since 2011 Samsungexpected to reach a global market share of 19.4 percent in 2025, a position it will maintain until 2029, according to Counterpoint.
Specifically, Apple is expected to reach around 243 million smartphone units shipped this year, compared to the 235 million global shipments expected from Samsung, in this case, with a share of 18.7 percent for the Korean firm.
This is clear from the latest smartphone market outlook report prepared by the company Counterpoint Research, which details the forecast for global shipments of smartphones in 2025, which will grow by 3.3 percent year-on-year and, as the protagonist, the iPhone manufacturer will stand out.
The technology company led by Tim Cook is a giant in the smartphone market, however, it always maintains high competition with Samsung, which, over the last 14 years, has been consolidating itself as the number one smartphone manufacturer globally.
Now, the Galaxy device firm will be dethroned and it will be Apple that will lead as the company that will make the most shipments in 2025, a position that is expected to maintain until next year 2029, according to the report.
Although these data do not make references to real sales, it must be taken into account that Apple’s success with iPhones is due to the fact that shipments of these smartphones exceeded expectations in the third quarter of this year, when they registered a year-on-year growth of 9 percent, after the recent launch of its latest iPhone 17 series.
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This series introduces new features for the company, such as the replacement of the Plus model with the new iPhone Air, the brand’s thinnest and most efficient iPhone, which is accompanied by new adjustments to memory configurations.
Thus, Counterpoint has stated that during the remainder of 2025, forecasts point to “exceptional” iPhone sales during the Christmas season, which add to already successful sales in recent months.
For example, sales of the iPhone 17 series in the United States, including the iPhone Air, during the launch month were 12 percent higher than the predecessor iPhone 16 series. These results are even better in China, where sales were 18 percent higher than its predecessor.
As Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang has assessed in this regard, beyond its reception, one of the key factors driving the outlook for iPhone shipments globally is based on the fact that “the replacement cycle is reaching its inflection point.” That is, users who purchased new iPhone devices since 2020, and those who have purchased second-hand iPhones between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, will upgrade to a new iPhone soon.
“These factors will generate a considerable demand base, which is expected to sustain the growth of iPhone shipments in the coming quarters,” added Wang. Another factor that the analyst has mentioned is that the tariff impacts, derived from the “technology war” between the United States and China, have been less than expected.
It doesn’t matter that Apple is late in AI
The report also clarifies that, although Apple has not launched an artificial intelligence (AI) experience as advanced as that of its competitor Samsung, with the delay in the launch of Apple Intelligence and its renewed Siri assistant, it has not been an influential factor in iPhone sales.
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Thus, when they introduce improved software functions, such as the renewed version of Siri, which is expected to arrive in the spring of next year 2026, the analyst company has anticipated that sales will be boosted even further.
Added to this is that a “major renovation of the iPhone design” is planned in 2027 to commemorate its 20th anniversary, helping it maintain its position as the main manufacturer. Continuing to look to the future, it should be noted that Apple is also working on the next iPhone 17e, as well as the first foldable iPhone.
Samsung will continue to grow
However, Samsung’s forecasts do not stop growing either, given that the data collected reflects that the technology company’s shipments will continue to grow until reaching 4.6 percent year-on-year.
Part of this solid performance in the sector is due to a “strategic change” for the company’s A series, which has “more robust” specifications and competitive prices for users. This, according to Counterpoint, will reinforce Samsung’s momentum in emerging markets.