AI – bubble or revolution? A heated debate between fund managers and journalists

The festive and wintry atmosphere in the hall soon gave way to a heated discussion, one that was more reminiscent of a trading floor than a press conference. Journalists did not hesitate to use the word “bubble”, while fund managers expressed more optimism.

However, there was broad agreement on one point: the stakes for artificial intelligence are the greatest since the industrial revolution – and the risks in it are no less than the opportunities.

Not the dot-com of the year 2000

Back then, the valuations of technology companies were completely disconnected from economic reality. Today, companies like Nvidia are trading at a profit multiple of about 25, and Amazon and Microsoft at slightly higher multiples – high figures, but far from the madness that characterized the peak of the telecom bubble.

“Foam layer” in the market

She mentioned as an example an event in Seoul, where a visit by the CEO of Nvidia to a chicken restaurant led to a 20% jump in the restaurant chain’s stock – and a 30% jump in the chicken supplier’s stock. “These are signs that cannot be ignored,” she said.

What might burst the bubble?

According to the participants in the discussion, the main threat for 2026 does not lie only in valuations, but mainly in inflation and interest. A return to a rising interest rate environment could reignite scenarios reminiscent of the bursting of the dot-com and real estate bubbles in the US.

In addition, investors may soon demand more tangible returns from investments in artificial intelligence, while Chinese competition – led by surprisingly cheap models like DeepSeek – puts additional pressure on the market.

How do you protect the investment?

Kirk reiterated the attractiveness of government bonds, while others mentioned gold – although Martin warned that a rush of private investors to the yellow metal could also be a sign of a new bubble.

Artificial intelligence may well be a historical turning point, but the road there is fraught with dangers. Between those who define it as “the greatest opportunity since the industrial revolution” and those who believe that it is just another bubble – the year 2026 marks a critical test year for investors.