Investment in AI could exceed $500 billion by 2026, according to Goldman Sachs

The increase reflects “the growing importance of AI in corporate strategy,” according to the report, published this Thursday, although the firm’s analysts warn that investors are “increasingly selective” when it comes to rewarding companies that bet on this technology.

The report highlights that capital spending projections for 2026 were revised upwards following the third quarter results of the main companies related to AI infrastructure, going from $465 billion to $527 billion.

However, the behavior of stocks shows divergences: investors They have distanced themselves from “companies whose infrastructure expansion affects their operational profitability and whose investment is financed with debt.”

In contrast, those “companies that demonstrate a clear relationship between capital expenditure and income” have been awarded, such as cloud computing giants Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure.

Goldman Sachs points out that AI adoption expected to boost economic productivity in the medium termalthough for the moment investors are focused on obtaining “immediate income.”

Among the main beneficiaries of this investment are semiconductors, data center operators, technology hardware providers and energy companies, whose stock returns have exceeded the expected growth of their earnings per share.

Uncertainty over financial impact

The report also identifies opportunities in software and services firms that develop AI platforms and databases, whose revenues could grow thanks to the adoption of this technology by companies.

However, he warns that companies still face uncertainty about when and to what extent these benefits will be reflected in their financial results.

Regarding spending projections, hyperscalers showed capital growth of 75% year-on-year in the third quarter, with expectations of slowing to 25% by the end of 2026according to Goldman Sachs.

The firm points out that analysts have systematically underestimated investment in technology in recent years and that “factors such as financing capacity and investor demand will limit expansion more than the liquidity of companies.”

Despite the volatility in the markets and the warnings of a bubble in the sector, large technology companies continued to dominate the main stock indices in 2025: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon and Alphabet represent a significant part of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, consolidating themselves as market drivers beyond the initial boom of AI.

Experts estimate that business adoption of AI will have a cumulative economic impact of $19.9 trillion on the global economy until 2030, representing around 3.5% of global GDP that year, according to a recent study by IDC, a firm specialized in technology analysis and consulting.