BYD is on track to surpass Tesla, Elon Musk’s company, in electric car sales in 2025 | TECHNOLOGY

Both groups are expected to release their final 2025 figures soon, and based on sales data so far this year, there is almost no chance of the Elon Musk-led firm retaining its leadership position.

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As of late November, Shenzhen-based BYD, which also makes hybrid vehicles, had sold 2.07 million electric vehicles so far this year.

Tesla, based in Austin, Texas, had sold 1.22 million as of the end of September.

Tesla’s September numbers included a one-time boost in sales, up to nearly half a million vehicles in a three-month period. That was before the end of the US tax credit for electric vehicle buyers, which was ended by a law promoted by climate change-skeptic President Donald Trump.

But Tesla sales are expected to fall to 449,000 in the fourth quarter, according to FactSet analysis consensus.

That would give Tesla about 1.65 million sales in all of 2025, a drop of 7.7% and well below the level BYD had reached in late November.

Deutsche Bank, which projects just 405,000 sales of Tesla’s electric vehicles during the fourth quarter, sees the company’s sales falling by about a third in North America and Europe, and by a tenth in China.

Transition period

Industry analysts note that it will take time for demand for electric vehicles to reach a equilibrium level in the United States following the elimination of the $7,500 US tax credit at the end of September 2025.

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Even before that, Tesla had struggled with sales in key markets due to CEO Musk’s political support for President Trump and other far-right politicians.

Tesla also faces growing competition in electric vehicles not only from BYD, but from other Chinese companies and European giants.

“We think Tesla will see some weakness in deliveries” in the fourth quarter, said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities.

Some 420,000 sales would be “enough to show stable demand,” with Wall Street “sharply focused on the autonomous chapter beginning in 2026,” Ives added, referring to Tesla’s plans to make vehicles that can drive without human intervention.

Even as it has grown rapidly, BYD has had challenges in its home market.

With profitability in China weighed down by price-sensitive consumers, the company has sought to strengthen its presence in foreign markets.

BYD is “one of the pioneers in establishing overseas production capacity and supply chains for electric vehicles,” Jing Yang, director of corporate ratings for the Asia-Pacific region at Fitch Ratings, told AFP.

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“Looking ahead, its geographic diversification will likely help it navigate an increasingly complicated global tariff environment,” Yang said.

autonomous driving

BYD’s foreign rivals have raised concerns about Chinese state subsidies and other public support that have allowed the company to sell vehicles at low prices.

Trump’s predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, imposed 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles that could even rise higher under the current Republican president.

Europe has also imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, but BYD is building manufacturing capacity in Hungary.

While the possibility of Tesla regaining its global leadership in electric vehicles seems uncertain, the American company could also be well positioned for growth.

For TD Cowen’s Michaeli, autonomous technology will play an increasingly important role for Tesla, with advances in its “fully self-driving” (FSD) offerings potentially boosting sales.

If Tesla successfully expands FSD capacity, “that should generate more demand for its vehicles,” Michaeli said.

Musk has said that production of the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi model, will begin in April 2026.

Tesla has also offered lower-priced versions of the Models 3 and Y that could boost sales.