The digital world collides with physical reality: the global economy begins to run out of copper

According to Bloomberg, the market is going through a “perfect storm”: tight supply, accelerated demand and a scenario of backwardationin which spot copper is worth more than the future, a sign of physical lack of the mineral. The increase in prices, far from being temporary, reflects a structural deficit.

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The decisive factor is the expansion of data centers. A conventional complex can consume between 5,000 and 15,000 tons of copper, while the hyperscale facilities needed to train AI models require up to 50,000 tons per unit. By 2030, this sector could absorb more than 500,000 tons per yearwith a practically inelastic demand: for technology companies, the price of copper is marginal compared to the total cost of their projects.

At the same time, supply deteriorates. According to the Financial Times, interruptions at large mines – such as Grasberg, in Indonesia – and strikes at Chilean deposits have eliminated the market’s slim safety margins. Reuters warns that without record prices there is no incentive for new exploitation, while banks such as Citi and ING project growing deficits that could exceed the 600,000 tons in 2026.

The problem is long term. Starting a copper mine takes between 17 and 19 years olda horizon incompatible with the accelerated growth of AI. Although alternatives such as recycling or the use of aluminum are explored, the conclusion is clear: without sufficient copper, the energy transition and technological development will be limited by a physical bottleneck.