Taxi without a driver! Millions of autonomous vehicles will arrive in the world’s cities by 2035.

The speed of introduction of robotaxis in Europe, it is stated, will be somewhat slower due to the fragmented regulatory framework, but also due to higher operating costs compared to the USA and China.

According to a conservative estimate from the BCG analysis called “It’s finally here: the evolution of robotaxis”, by 2035 there could be 850,000 robotaxis in China, 350,000 in the USA, and approximately 120,000 robotaxis in Europe.

According to research conducted on more than nine thousand respondents, in China currently around 60 percent of consumers are open to robotaxis, and in the United States and Europe 30 to 35 percent say they would be ready to use such a service.

According to the BCG research, robotic taxis are becoming attractive to those who care less about the factor of technological novelty and more about safety, reliability and low costs. Because of this, BCG expects that by 2030 the acceptance of robotaxis by consumers in the USA could reach 60 percent, and in Europe over 45 percent.

In order to introduce robotaxis to a market, it is necessary to overcome complex regulatory, operational and technological challenges. According to BCG’s estimate, starting a commercial business in an American city can take up to two years and cost 15 – 30 million US dollars.

The initial enthusiasm subsided

BCG claims that initial enthusiasm for robotaxis has been replaced by disillusionment over practical difficulties, and several key companies have pulled out of the market or changed strategy. Recently, however, in several large cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and Beijing, robotaxis have been launched as a commercial service, which may give the market a new impetus.

Large regional differences in operating costs are also expected. Doing business in Europe will initially be more expensive than in the US, primarily due to higher energy and labor costs for maintaining a fleet of vehicles, and a stricter regulatory framework. In China, by contrast, operating costs are 30 to 50 percent lower thanks to cheaper technology and lower labor costs.

According to BCG’s forecast, in the long term, robot taxis could replace 55 to 85 percent of city trips in economically developed cities.

Due to high parking costs, robot taxis are a good alternative to owning a personal car, but private vehicles will continue to play a significant role in our lives. In locations where the use of private cars is not restricted by high congestion charges or low-emission zones, and high parking prices, private cars are likely to continue to be the dominant form of transportation, according to BCG.