Super El Nino could push global temperatures to record highs

Theo CNNthere are growing signs that El Nino could form and strengthen significantly in the next few months, upsetting weather patterns around the world. El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle driven by fluctuations in ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. ENSO causes knock-on effects across the globe, affecting everything from rainfall, drought, storms, and heat waves.

The world is in La Nina, the cold phase of ENSO. La Nina occurs when the sea surface drops at least 0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months or more compared to the long-term average. In contrast, El Nino appears when the sea surface rises by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius.

Although there are still many uncertainties, most predictions from El Nino monitoring groups in the US, Australia and many other places show that La Nina is gradually weakening.

In the middle of this month, the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that La Nina is expected to end in the coming weeks when the sea warms and there is a 62% chance of El Nino appearing from June to August. El Nino tends to increase storm activity in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while weakening storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

The National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration also said that current monitoring shows that La Nina is weakening. “There is a relatively high probability that the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will enter an El Nino phase in the second half of this year, but it is still impossible to predict the exact onset or overall intensity,” Liu Yunyun, director of the climate forecasting department at the center, told China Daily.

Some computer models, including Europe’s highly regarded synthetic model, predict quite strongly the possibility of El Nino forming, possibly even developing into a “super El Nino” in late fall.

Weather page AccuWeather also said that, if it occurs as predicted, El Nino could strengthen into a “super El Nino” with sea surface temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average. “The intensity is still uncertain, but there is a possibility of a moderate to strong El Nino this fall and winter,” said Paul Pastelok, meteorologist and long-term forecasting expert at AccuWeathersaid.

AccuWeather estimates the likelihood of a super El Nino occurring at the end of the hurricane season, around November, is 15%. Meanwhile, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimates the probability of a strong El Nino from October to December is 1/3, but notes that it is “very difficult to be certain” about the intensity.

ENSO typically produces a warm El Niño followed by a cold La Nina every 2-7 years, but this is not always the case. Similarly, each phase usually lasts 9-12 months, but the actual time may vary.

The last time Earth experienced El Nino was from May 2023 to March 2024. This episode almost reached super El Nino, when the sea surface temperature increased above 2 degrees Celsius but did not maintain it long enough. The most recent Super El Nino occurred in 2015-2016.

El Nino has contributed to record heat waves in 2023 and 2024, with 2024 holding the record for the hottest year on record. If this phenomenon reappears, this year will be warmer but it will be difficult to surpass the record of 2024 because the beginning of the year is still influenced by the La Nina cold phase.

However, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, global temperatures in 2027 could be pushed to record levels. “El Nino is coming. This will increase estimates for global temperatures in 2026 (though still unlikely to exceed 2024), and make 2027 very likely to become the hottest year on record due to the lag between ENSO and surface temperatures,” Hausfather wrote on X last week.

Chen Lijuan, head of the climate forecasting department of the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration, was cautious. “At this stage, it’s too early to say that a super El Nino will necessarily lead to the hottest year on record,” she said.

According to Chen, public concern reflects growing concerns about climate risks as extreme weather events become more frequent around the world. “Regardless of whether El Nino occurs this year or not, the increased frequency of extreme weather events has become a new reality under the impact of global climate change,” she said.