Scientists warn of a possible “super El Niño” that would bring intense rains in Peru and global record heat

According to him latest forecast from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)there is a high probability that an especially intense version of the climate phenomenon will develop this year, which reinforced the forecasts published last month.

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If confirmed, this event could become one of the most powerful in more than a century. Some specialists point out that there is a real possibility that it will exceed the intensity recorded in 2015, when temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific reached close to 2.8°C above average.

The El Niño phenomenon occurs when a swath of the equatorial Pacific Ocean warms anomalously, altering the planet’s atmospheric patterns. In its most extreme version—known as “super El Niño”— sea temperatures can exceed 2°C above normalamplifying effects such as droughts, floods, heat waves and changes in cyclonic activity.

For South America, climate models warn that they could increase heavy rainfall near the equatorwhich increases the risk of flooding in areas of Peru and Ecuador, especially towards the end of the year and during the peak of the phenomenon.

In addition to the rains, a increased frequency of heat waves in much of South Americawith possible impacts on agriculture and water availability in several countries in the region.

On a global scale, the phenomenon could also alter other weather patterns. It is expected a increased cyclone and typhoon activity in the Pacificwhile in the Atlantic the hurricane season could be less intense. Some regions, such as the Caribbean or Indonesia, could face severe droughts.

Scientists warn that, on an increasingly warming planet, the effects of El Niño may be amplified. The heat released from the ocean during these episodes usually results in years with record temperatures worldwide.

In fact, some specialists estimate that the maximum impact of this event could be felt between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, a period in which Global temperatures could set new records again.