Artificial intelligence: this is how technology will help the war between Israel and Hamas

Professor Alex Mintz, head of the laboratory for computerized decision-making at Reichman University and former rector of the university, presented this week at the Herzliya 2024 conference, a computerized analysis of the decisions of the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar. The analysis included predicting a number of Sinwar’s future decisions, focusing on past and future critical decisions.

The study presented the use of advanced software called DecisionHuddleAi, which aims to predict the conduct of the organization and the possible response scenarios in different strategic situations. Professor Mintz claims that Sinwar makes his decisions rationally from his point of view, guided by the goals of the terrorist organization he leads.

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The analysis of the professor and his software focuses on understanding the interests of Hamas, whose currently stated goals include an end to the war, an Israeli withdrawal, the introduction of humanitarian aid, and a prisoner exchange.

In addition, the preservation of the rule of Hamas and its leaders is a central consideration that the artificial intelligence reveals. Through DecisionHuddleAi, Professor Mintz and his team examined several possible scenarios: 1. The normalization scenario with Saudi Arabia: If Israel adopts the American initiative for normalization with Saudi Arabia and comes under the wings of the regional alliance led by the United States, Hamas may move closer to Iran as a response to the American-Israeli-Gulf countries alliance -Egypt-Jordan.

2. Leaving Rafah: If Israel leaves Rafah but remains in the Philadelphia axis, Hamas will feel pressure and respond by negotiating regarding the hostages. Such a move could block Hamas’ supply routes and affect the internal pressure in the organization. “In general, this direction of using artificial intelligence is just at the beginning,” says Professor Mintz.

He further adds: “It’s something completely different, it’s not just Middle East analysts looking at materials. It opens up the possibilities for the decision maker to anticipate what the other side will do.”

He elaborates: “In intelligence research we know quite a lot about the adversary’s capabilities and little about his intentions.” But I claim that there is a gap because they do not understand how the decision is made. In the professional language this is called “the decision law”. There are different ways to reach a decision, if we don’t know how to make the decision we will almost always miss predicting the decision.”

Mintz reveals that “we did a simulation at the beginning of the war regarding Nasrallah, before he made the famous statement on Friday, in which the State of Israel was waiting for him to say whether he would join the war. A simulation we did two weeks before showed that he would continue with the fighting at a low intensity and not enter into an all-out and large-scale fighting.”

Professor Mintz explains that using artificial intelligence tools makes it possible to analyze the opponent’s decision-making more quickly and accurately, without analytical biases. This method, called “applied decision analysis”, is based on reproducing the opponent’s previous decisions, in order to identify his decision pattern and predict further decisions.

He points out that in the US the Pentagon launched a significant initiative in the field of artificial intelligence in decision-making, which shows the tremendous potential of this technology in strategic analysis. In Israel, on the other hand, the field is still not sufficiently developed, and the conference in Herzliya was an opportunity to present the potential and emphasize the importance of These tools are in the defense field.

Professor Mintz emphasized that, “This direction of using artificial intelligence in the strategic field opens up completely new possibilities. It’s not just Middle East analysts who look at materials, but it makes it possible to see the decision space of the other side and predict what he will do.

According to him, it is possible to predict what the decisions of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will be. He reveals: “We examined many of his decisions and his pattern is very, very regular. It is not from the Western direction nor from the direction of an Israeli point of view, but from a unique, brutal terrorist point of view.”

Prof. Mintz states: “Sinwar is trying to promote his goals, his goals are quite stated, and among them is the preservation of Hamas rule.” The professor asks: “Why do they want an Israeli withdrawal?” And he replies: “Because they want to return and control the Strip and also want to preserve their leadership.”