The trends in forest fire risk in Europe are alarming according to a study published in ‘Environmental Research Letters’ by a team of researchers from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Frankfurt (SBiK-F) and partner organisations of the joint EU project ‘FirEUrisk’. Their study, led by Senckenberg scientist Thomas Hickler uses high-resolution climate models to demonstrate that the Fire risk to increase significantly across Europe.
The higher the level of global warming, the more dramatic the ‘fire weather’ say scientists. Even in previously moderately risky areas of Central Europe and in rapidly warming mountain regions, dangerous weather conditions will occur with increasing frequency, the researchers stress, therefore, the growing importance of prevention and control measures. Over the past decade, Europe has been warmer and drier than at any time in recorded meteorological history, resulting in a higher fire risk than ever before.
In the In 2017, nearly one million hectares of land burned across the European continent.. A particularly large number of fires have broken out in the Mediterranean region, which has historically been prone to severe wildfires, and even areas not previously considered at risk of fire, such as the United Kingdom, have been affected. The European research team used data from several high-resolution climate models to study the expected evolution of the risk and frequency of such fires as climate change continues to advance in Europe.
“Our data show that this dangerous trend will continue in the coming decades and that the risk of forest fires will increase further across Europe, even with a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions,” explains the study’s first author, Jessica Hetzer from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center Frankfurt (SBiK-F). “Even in our calculated scenario with the lowest increase in CO2 emissions, the average weather-related forest fire risk in summer in Europe will increase by 24 percent by 2050, compared to the historical average. With high greenhouse gas emissions, this increase will be even more drastic. At the same time, an increasing number of regions will be affected.”
To measure the intensity of the so-called ‘fire weather’ – that is, the combination of risk factors such as high temperatures, low humidity and low precipitation, combined with strong winds – the researchers used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), among other things, and calculated different scenarios for the period up to 2080.
“In the already fire-prone regions of southern Europe – countries such as Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal, Croatia and Turkey – conditions will become even more extreme,” predicts study leader Thomas Hickler (SBiK-F). “This frequent extreme fire weather is a major challenge for ecosystems and societies in these countries. At the same time, areas of Central Europe, parts of Northern Europe and especially rapidly warming mountain regions will be threatened by severe fires. If CO2 increases sharply, fire weather in the German low mountain ranges, the Carpathians, the Vosges and the Massif Central could increase by up to 60 percent in some areas.” The increasing frequency of fire weather in mountain regions poses additional risks.
“The fire danger is also influenced by factors such as the nature of the terrain and the flammability of vegetation,” explains Senckenberg researcher Matthew Forrest. “Complex topography and steep slopes can significantly increase the risk of fires. On the one hand, fires can spread more quickly in hard-to-reach and bush-covered areas due to limited cultivation; at the same time, it is more difficult to fight fires in rough terrain. In these regions, vegetation and residential areas often mix. This creates a considerable risk of settlement fires and heavy smoke pollution.” The researchers therefore emphasize the growing importance of early warning systems, fire monitoring and fire fighting, even in previously less affected regions.