Assessment in the Biden administration: There will be no deal before the election

Despite months of painstaking effort, senior US officials said they do not expect Israel and Hamas to reach a hostage deal and a cease-fire agreement before the end of President Biden’s term – this was reported tonight (between Thursday and Friday) in the Wall Street Journal. However, it was further reported Because Washington emphasizes that they will continue to try and achieve such an agreement – because they see it as the only way to end the war in Gaza and stop the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah.

Pessimism and frustration in the Biden administration

“There is no agreement imminent, and I’m not sure there ever will be,” said an official in the administration. In the US, several reasons are cited for the differences that now seem irreconcilable: Hamas’s demands regarding the number and ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in the deal, the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah following the radio blast attacks – and also the fact that the Biden administration sees that Hamas is not serious and has refrained from moving forward in negotiations.

 

Officials in the administration say that Hamas makes demands – and then refuses to say “yes” after the US and Israel agree to them. The mediators have expressed frustration with this, and the mood in the administration is more pessimistic than it has been in recent months. “There is no chance of that happening right now,” said an official in the Middle East , “Everyone is now in a state of waiting to see what the election results will be.”

The ceasefire remains Biden’s “mainstay” in the region

At the same time, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met on Wednesday with the relatives of the seven American hostages who are still being held in Gaza. Sullivan made it clear to them that securing their release is the president’s top priority, but the families’ statement said they “expressed frustration at the lack of tangible progress” to the national security adviser – and urged the administration to reach a deal as soon as possible.

John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, told reporters Wednesday that the prospects for a final deal are “daunting,” and while the administration has signaled for months that a deal is close, he said, “We’re no closer to it now than we were a week ago.” Still, Kirby reiterated and emphasized that the administration will continue to work to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough.

A ceasefire remains the “pillar” of the Biden administration’s strategy in the Middle East, believing that it will calm tensions and pave the way for the establishment of official diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Last night, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman repeated that the kingdom will not recognize Israel without a Palestinian state.

“It will require leadership and compromise”

Other American officials emphasized that there are many months left to achieve a breakthrough between Israel and Hamas, and much can change until Inauguration Day – when Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will inherit a burning Middle East. However, the US is still in talks with mediators Egypt and Qatar about breaking the deadlock.

One of the sources said that “it would be irresponsible” on the part of the administration to give up on finding an agreement that would bring at least temporary relief to the region, but also indicated frustration on the part of the warring parties: “As we said from the beginning – it will require leadership and compromise. We call on all parties to demonstrate this.”