Forza Italia and M5s are rising in political polls

With the now well-established arrival of autumn – at least from a climatic point of view – it is possible to draw up a definitive balance of how the consensus of Italians has shifted during the summer. In the last week, in fact, new polls have been published by several important institutes that had not published any since July. This allows us to obtain an even more accurate Supermedia in comparison with the situation that preceded the summer break.

This new analysis shows that the center-right has indeed consolidated, but not as clearly as it might have appeared last week. Fratelli d’Italia is still the first party, with relatively stable values ​​at 29%, but the healthiest majority party remains Forza Italia (+0.3%). On a general level, however, it is the M5S that records a positive balance of almost half a point, despite the tensions between Conte and Grillo. Among the parties in crisis, Azione stands out, falling below 3% (something that has not happened in our Supermedia since June 2021), reflecting the difficult situation currently experienced by Carlo Calenda’s party, with the rapid-fire departures of former Forza Italia members Costa, Gelmini and Carfagna.

Broadening our gaze to the dynamics that emerged after the European elections in June, a situation of substantial stability emerges for the main parties: the PD had embarked on a slightly declining trend, but these latest data seem to show it recovering, while a moment of weakness is recorded – not only for Azione – but also for Michele Santoro’s list Pace Terra Dignità, which in the European elections had obtained more than 2% but which today according to the polls has more than halved.

In fact, the only party that has shown a positive trend in the last two months is the 5 Star Movement. A growth that, although slight (we are talking about a +1.7% compared to the result of the European elections), is a rather surprising element. On the one hand, in fact, history teaches us that a party that obtains a disappointing result in an important election – and this is certainly the case of the M5S – tends to lose further consensus in the period immediately following. On the other hand, the internal disputes between the leader Giuseppe Conte and the founder/guarantor Beppe Grillo that have exploded in recent weeks do not seem to have damaged the consensus towards the Movement at all.

Despite the harshness of the confrontation, which has been dragging on for weeks (if not months) and which also seems destined to be brought to court, this does not reflect an actual split in the base of the 5 Star Movement: according to a SWG survey, in fact, almost three-quarters of M5S voters are on Conte’s side, while only 14% believe that Beppe Grillo is right. Numbers that are also affected by an evident leader factor: according to the same survey, in fact, there is greater balance on what the future line of the Movement should be, with 61% who believe that some internal rules should be changed and convergences with other parties should be found and 39% who would instead prefer a return to the origins, to an intransigent protest movement, without changing founding rules such as the limit to two mandates. On this rule, in particular, in the last two years the Five Star Movement base has become decidedly less intransigent: 52% think it can be maintained but with exceptions (an increase of 17 points compared to 2022) while vice versa the share of those who would like to keep it as it is has dropped from 32% to 22%.

In any case, out of 100 Italians who would vote for the M5S today, 68 say they would vote for a possible new movement led by Giuseppe Conte, while only 21 – just over 2 out of 10 – would vote for an M5S led by Grillo or other individuals like Virginia Raggi. For this reason, it is possible that a deflagration of what is currently the third Italian party in terms of consensus will not exactly cause an earthquake in voting intentions. We will see.