Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats beat the far right by one point in Brandenburg

The Social Democrats of German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz narrowly beat the far right in a regional election in Brandenburg on Sunday (east), according to exit polls published by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF.

The SPD won between 32 and 31 percent of the vote, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) between 30 and 29 percent, according to both channels. The Christian Democrats are tied with the newly formed left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance on 12 percent, while the Greens are on 5 percent, according to polls broadcast by public television.

2.1 million citizens of the state of Potsdam, which has been governed until now by a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Greens, were eligible to vote.

According to pre-election polls, Alternative fuer Deutschland (AFD) had 28 percent, followed by the Social Democrats of outgoing Governor Dietmar Woidke.

Participation was 74%, almost 13 points higher of the last elections in 2019, when 61.3% of the census voted.

2.1 million citizens aged 16 or over – just over 3% of the German electorate – were eligible to vote in Brandenburg, of whom 356,000 had requested to send their ballot by post.

If the projections are confirmed, the seats of the Social Democrats, Christian Democrats and Greens would add up to 47 of a total of 88 in the regional parliament, enough to repeat the coalition that governed the region during the last legislative period.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), classified as suspected of extremism by German intelligence services, would be left with less than a third of the seatswhich would not allow him to block important decisions of the chamber.

But the margin is very slim and the AfD could overtake the Social Democrats as the count progresses, forcing the acting Prime Minister, the popular Dietmar Woidke, to make good on his threat to resign and not lead a possible coalition of democratic forces.

With the so-called ‘cordon sanitaire’ currently in place, the AfD would have no real chance of governing, But a victory would greatly complicate negotiations to form a governing coalition in the state and would deal a further blow to the already battered government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Migration and security issues dominated the campaign –Brandenburg borders Poland– as well as social issues such as health and housing and international politics such as the war in Ukraine.

Brandenburg is the third and last ‘Land’ to hold regional elections this year in eastern Germany, where the AfD already swept Thuringia, where it was the leading force with 32.8% of the votes and in Saxony where with a similar percentage it was just one point behind the Christian Democrat winners.

In the last regional elections in Brandenburg, the SPD already managed to beat the AfD by a narrow margin of 26.2 to 23.5 percentage points, while the Christian Democrats and the Greens took third and fourth place with 15.6 and 10.8 percent of the votes respectively.