Brandenburg votes, historic defeat looms for Chancellor Scholz’s SPD

Crucial vote today in Brandenburg, coveted by the far-right party Alternative fur Deutschland, after the victories obtained in Thuringia and Saxony, two other key regions of the former GDR. In the “Land” of the capital Berlin, a historic stronghold of the Social Democrats who have governed it uninterruptedly since reunification in 1990, voting is today and the polls show a very close challenge between the AfD and the SPD: the latest surveys credit the far right with 28% and the Social Democrats with 25%, while other institutes narrow the gap and show the SPD one point behind the AfD, so a challenge to the last vote is expected.

In a context of difficulty for the federal government led by the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz and with the next legislative elections a year away, the issues of the economy and immigration are taking centre stage in the election campaign. With the decision to reinstate border controls, the majority in Berlin is trying to wink at right-wing voters, but overtaking in Brandenburg is possible, indeed probable. Even if it were to happen, however, the far-right party would remain politically isolated, given that the other parties have ruled out wanting to form an alliance to form a coalition that includes them.

Polls showing a neck-and-neck race between the AfD and the SPD also point to a slowdown for the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the populist New Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), with both projected to be around 15 percent. The Greens and the Left Party, however, may not be able to clear the 5 percent threshold needed to enter the state parliament in Potsdam. The neoliberal FDP, a coalition partner in the federal government, has not had a seat in the state parliament of Brandenburg since 2014. In a fragmented national political landscape, the SPD has always held a majority in Brandenburg, having governed the country since 1990. Polls also showing the rise of the far right suggest that the SPD is likely to continue to govern in a coalition (now comprising the CDU and the Greens).

Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke is seeking a fourth term, and if he wins he will surpass his predecessors Manfred Stolpe and Matthias Platzeck, who both served three terms in Potsdam. With just under 2.6 million inhabitants, Brandenburg is the tenth most populous of Germany’s 16 states. The rural flight and economic crisis that have affected many eastern states since reunification have not occurred in Brandenburg; the number of inhabitants has remained virtually unchanged. The state’s rich natural environment is one of its hallmarks: more than a third of the land is covered in forest, and there are also lakes and swamps, all the way to the Polish border.

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, more and more Berliners have moved there to get out of the city and get closer to nature and take advantage of the efficient transport to work in the city. Two important economic hubs of the state are the airport inaugurated in 2020, which has become the third in Germany after Frankfurt and Munich, and the Tesla factory with around 7,000 employees. There are also several universities and a strong presence of international students and researchers.