“Ground invasion almost inevitable, Iran will not respond”

Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon “is almost inevitable”, Iran will not react to the escalation with Hezbollah. These are the two fixed points in the commentary of Meir Litvak, professor of Middle Eastern history at Tel Aviv University, on the developments in the region that are increasingly close to a full-scale war. “I fear that a ground invasion of Lebanon is very likely – he tells Adnkronos – Although Israel was not interested in such an invasion at this time, while the Gaza front is still active, the gradual escalation in the north makes it almost inevitable”.

According to the expert, “Hezbollah has waged a very successful war of attrition against Israel, for which Israel had no good solution. The current situation has become increasingly untenable and there is an almost inevitable process of escalation of the measures used by each side.”

Litvak rules out any connection between the escalation and the upcoming US elections. “One possible reason for the timing of the pager and walkie-talkie attack last week,” he explains, citing leaked information, “is that Hezbollah would have become suspicious” of possible sabotage and “Israel feared being exposed and wanted to score a major psychological victory.”

Finally, the Tel Aviv University professor does not believe that Tehran could directly enter the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. “I doubt that Iran will actually join this action, unless it believes that Hezbollah is about to collapse completely, which is not likely to happen.” “The entire Iranian strategy is based on the idea that these proxies must fight for Iran, not the other way around,” Litvak says. “Iranians do not get killed for the Arabs, if it can be avoided.”