Increased Israel-Iran tension threatens to intensify conflict in the region

Just six days away from completing a year, the current war in the Middle East has had perhaps the most tense day in the last 24 hours since the attacks by the terrorist group Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, which triggered the conflict, initially in the Strip. Gaza.

Another terrorist group, the Shiite Hezbollah, also supported by Iran, has been exchanging bombings with Israel in the border region with Lebanon since the start of the war in Gaza, but tensions increased after the death of the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an attack Israeli in Beirut on Friday (27).

With the aim of allowing the return of citizens to the north of the country, displaced by Hezbollah attacks, Israel announced in the early hours of this Tuesday (1st, local time) “limited incursions” (land) in southern Lebanon.

Later, in response to Nasrallah’s death, Iran carried out a missile attack on several Israeli regions, forcing millions of people to seek bomb shelters.

The vast majority of the projectiles were intercepted, but Israeli forces said a Palestinian in Jericho, in the West Bank, was killed and two people were injured in Tel Aviv as a result of the offensive.

The Pentagon, which helped intercept the projectiles, said today’s offensive was “about twice as large in terms of the number of ballistic missiles launched” compared to an attack by Iran in April.

That month, Tehran carried out an attack in response to a bombing (attributed to Israel) on the Iranian consulate in Syria that killed a key military leader of the ayatollahs’ regime in early April, Revolutionary Guard Brigadier General Mohamed Reza al Zahedi.

There were more than 300 Iranian drones and missiles, 99% of which would have been intercepted by Israel and allied forces, from countries such as the United States, United Kingdom and France. No one was killed and there were no serious injuries. Israel responded days later with an attack on a military base in the Iranian province of Isfahan.

This direct exchange of attacks between the two countries, enemies since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, is unprecedented and raises fears of a third front in the current war in the Middle East, with the participation of more actors.

If after the April attacks the situation quickly returned to the scenario of recent decades, with Iran always preferring to attack Israel through the terrorist groups it supports and not directly, analysts consider that the same may not happen after this Tuesday’s Iranian offensive- fair – to which Israeli forces have already promised a response.

“It’s a different time, because Iran’s attack in April was in response to the death of an Iranian military leader, there was a certain sense in fighting back. Now, Iran is attacking unprovoked. Iran is reacting to a military incursion into Lebanon and is responding to Hezbollah’s need for support,” said Igor Macedo de Lucena, economist, doctor in international relations and member of the British think tank Chatham House, in an interview with People’s Gazette.

“If Israel responds, Iran responds and there is an open war, this brings the United States into the conflict and we will have a completely open war, with all players and a major armed conflict in the Middle East”, he projected.

Lucena pointed out that, on the eve of the American election, the degree of response from President Joe Biden and his candidate for the White House, Kamala Harris, could be decisive both for the election and for the war in the Middle East.

“If Israel needs to defend itself and attack Iran directly, which I think is very likely, will it bring the Americans along or not?” asked Lucena.

“If the US does not incisively defend Israel, this will be very damaging to the current administration. And if they enter, it will be a conflict that they were unable to avoid, showing a fragility in Biden and Harris’ foreign policy. This military incursion into Lebanon and the Iranian attack give political advantage to (Republican candidate Donald) Trump, as a name that could have avoided this,” said the analyst.

Analyst does not believe in US participation in offensive operations

Reserve colonel and military analyst Paulo Roberto da Silva Gomes Filho, columnist for People’s Gazettedoes not believe in a more incisive involvement of the Americans at first.

“The United States has already acted to intercept Iranian missiles. Firstly, I do not believe that the US will participate in offensive operations. They will only help Israel with anti-aircraft defense,” he said.

However, Gomes Filho said he has no doubt that the Iranian attack will cause an escalation in the conflict, at a time when the world is wondering when and how Israel will respond.

“The information about the effectiveness of the Iranian attack is inconsistent. But it appears that several Iranian missiles managed to reach Israeli territory, a situation very different from what happened in April, when practically 100% of Iranian missiles and drones were intercepted without causing any damage. This increases the pressure on the Israeli government to respond with an intensity at least equivalent to that of Iran”, pointed out the analyst.

“And, since Iran has already threatened to retaliate with even greater intensity if Israel responds, there is a real chance that the region will fall into a spiral of violence with serious consequences,” added Gomes Filho.