If Israel-Iran tensions escalate further after Tehran’s attack, the US faces the risk of falling into the conflict they always tried to avoid.
Iran on October 1 launched a massive missile attack on Israel in response to Tel Aviv’s recent series of attacks targeting senior leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had “made a serious mistake” and would “pay the price”, raising the risk that the sides could be dragged into a full-blown conflict.
After the raid, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he had warned the US not to get involved in the Middle East conflict through the Swiss embassy in Tehran. Iran’s Foreign Minister affirmed that the campaign to attack Israel has ended and “we have no intention of continuing”, but emphasized that Iran will take more drastic action if Israel decides to retaliate.
If Israel takes action in response as announced by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iran continues to escalate its response, the Middle East region will face a furnace of war that could push millions of people into tragedy.
Many people hope that somehow the escalation of conflict will be stopped. But the risks are still huge and if the US gets bogged down in a full-scale war in the Middle East, all responsibility may be blamed on President Joe Biden.
US President Joe Biden at the White House on October 1. Photo: AFP
According to Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible State Policy, the White House has repeatedly chosen to keep the US on the brink of conflict, instead of containing Israel. intensify military actions with a series of regional opponents, including rival Iran.
Parsi believes that the Biden administration has contributed to creating the current situation by continuing to provide Israel with weapons, diplomatic support and resources for Tel Aviv to pursue escalatory actions with Tehran and armed groups. in the region such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi, something Washington claims does not want to happen.
The US strategy is to seek to prevent Iran and allied forces from retaliating against Israel, while doing virtually nothing to prevent Tel Aviv from escalating in the first place. This unbalanced approach is actually a recipe for rising tensions, as the US has no intention of putting pressure on Israel, Parsi explained.
Now, in the face of Iran’s missile attack, the US will certainly have to act to maintain security in the Middle East. However, according to observers, President Biden is currently facing a dilemma, when he is stuck between his promise to end the conflict in Gaza and continuing to support Tel Aviv on another hot front. up every day.
Last week, when the US failed in its efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that the risk of escalation in the region was great and that diplomacy was the only path to deescalation. stress.
Blinken asserted that a coordinated international effort was crucial “to avoid a full-blown conflict.” But since then, Israel has taken advantage of its intelligence to kill most of Hezbollah’s commanders and also launched a ground campaign in Lebanon.
The Biden administration now faces the harsh reality that the prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon appears unrealistic, if not out of reach, as the The event went beyond Washington’s previous calculations.
Two former Biden administration officials said that before Israel’s offensive campaign against Hezbollah, Washington lowered expectations and focused on only one goal in the Middle East: Avoid escalating tensions with Iran. But that goal became even more distant after Tehran’s missile attack.
“With the region getting hotter than ever and with the possibility of Israel retaliating against Iran, which will certainly lead to some further retaliation efforts from Tehran, we will face very difficult times in the ahead,” commented Suzanne Maloney, an expert from the Middle East Policy Center at the Brookings Institution, USA.
Iran launched a direct attack on Israel in April using a series of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Israel then launched missiles in retaliation, hitting a radar system near where Iran is developing its nuclear weapons program. However, this response was mostly symbolic and did not trigger Iran’s next response, helping the region escape the risk of major conflict.
But according to Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president in charge of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, based in Washington, this time Israel may not respond to Iran with the “raising high and low hitting” method as before.
“They will have to increase the pressure before cooling it down,” he said.
Israeli air defense intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles on October 1. Video: Reuters
When both sides maintain a tough attitude and are forced to respond to the other, Schanzer believes that the opportunity to realize the Biden administration’s desire to bring the conflict to an end with a diplomatic solution is very low.
If President Biden allows Israel to escalate further, this could very well lead to a direct military confrontation between the US and Iran, destabilizing the region. It is difficult to quantify the consequences for US national security from such a conflict, but it will make many people think of the consequences of the “military adventurism” followed by the George W. Bush administration. chased in the Middle East before, said Parsi experts from the Quincy Institute.
According to Parsi, if American soldiers are pushed into the line of fire in the spreading conflict between Iran and Israel, it will be the most direct and dangerous consequence of Washington not pressuring Tel Aviv strongly enough to follow suit. Pursuing their most core security interest in the Middle East is avoiding all-out conflict.
President Biden took office with a promise to end an era of long conflicts and costly efforts to change the situation in the Middle East. But recent developments show that that commitment is becoming increasingly distant.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the Global Crisis Group, a Washington-based think tank, noted that the only way to resolve the problem is for the United States, the only country with influence over Israel, to exercise restraint. Tel Aviv regime.
According to commentator Gideon Rachman from Financial Times, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government has so far shown that it is willing to ignore the wishes of its closest ally. This reality stems from a paradox in US policy.
“The Biden administration can and does urge Israeli restraint in Gaza and Lebanon. But it will also always protect Israel from the consequences of any escalation, based on its overarching commitment to defend Israel from Iran and other enemies in the region,” Rachman said. “Israel has since formed the perception that challenging the Biden administration has almost no risk, and may even bring some benefits if they can entice the US to deploy military power against Iran.”
Location Iran and Israel. Graphics: BBC
The possibility of Washington refusing to support Tel Aviv in a crisis is further reduced with the upcoming US presidential election, Rachman said.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, implied that she would adopt a tougher line with Prime Minister Netanyahu on the Gaza issue. But she also wanted to appear steadfast and fully supportive of Israel at a dangerous time. On the other hand, she cannot risk appearing soft on Iran, a country with which the United States has a long history of rivalry.
The current situation in the Middle East could also be bad news for Ms. Harris, as it creates an excuse for former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, to claim that the world was very peaceful during his term but become unstable when President Biden leads the country, Rachman assessed.
“Every time the US presidential election takes place, people speculate about an ‘October surprise’ that could appear, upsetting the race with just a few weeks left until voting day. Israel and Iran have may just bring that surprise in this year’s election,” he said.