Israel vs Iran What will the Israeli response be like? | The most extreme scenarios, including direct war

On Wednesday, the Jerusalem Post reported that several Iranian missiles hit Israeli Air Force bases causing material damage. No civilians, soldiers or aircraft were damaged by the explosions.

Damage to military bases was not significant enough to hamper the work of the Air Force, allowing Israel continue attacking targets in Gaza and the Lebanon.

Furthermore, the Israeli army has specified that the damage does not prevent Israel attack on Iran whenever.

Most missiles fired by Iran were intercepted by Israel’s defense systems Iron Dome and Arrow. But this did not prevent millions of people from being threatened and having to look for air raid shelters.

It should be remembered that in the April attack Israel determined that Iran used 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles. Most were destroyed with the help of the United States and other allied countries, even before they crossed into Israeli territory. The attack caused minor damage to an Israeli military base and shrapnel seriously injured a 7-year-old girl from a Bedouin Arab community in southern Israel.

Israel retaliated by firing missiles at Iran. It aimed at a target close to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities, causing little damage, although it served to demonstrate to Iran that it is vulnerable.

At the time, analysts considered that both actions were announced and limited and did not have the objective of causing numerous victims.

In the April attack, Israel had several days of notice to coordinate its defense with the United States and its allies in the region. But Tuesday’s action came with just hours’ notice. The US launched an alert and soon the missiles were already over Israel.

Compared to April, Tuesday’s attack is no longer considered symbolic and there is concern about how Israel will respond.

On Wednesday, the president of Iran Masud Pezeshkian said he “does not seek war,” but promised a “stronger” response in case Israel respond to the missile attack.

Could Israel’s response lead to direct war?

The international analyst Roberto Heimovits maintains that to understand the situation we must start from the premise that Iran should not have any problem with Israelbecause there is no area of ​​geopolitical dispute between the two, they have no borders and Israel does not represent a threat to Iran, “But despite all this, Iran has decided to become Israel’s mortal enemy since 1979.”

“So, After Tuesday’s attack, Israel is likely to decide to adopt a fairly harsh response to maintain its deterrenceboth against Iran and other enemies in the Middle East”Heimovits anticipated The Commerce.

The analyst cited what was said by the former Israeli prime minister Naphtali Bennettwho stated that this is an opportunity for Israel to eliminate the greatest threat to its existence: Iran’s program to build nuclear bombs.

“Israel may also strike Iran’s oil production and export infrastructure in retaliation,” anotó Heimovits.

Specifically, the most extreme retaliation could be related to an attack on the Natanz uranium enrichment centerswhich is the core of the nuclear program Iran. While a attack on the oil industry It would be a serious blow to the country’s economy. Nor can one rule out the targeted killings of Iranian leaders.

Could an attack on Natanz lead to a direct war? Heimovits believes that this action will provoke another barrage of missiles from Iran fired at Israel, perhaps larger than that on Tuesday.

“Actually, the threat to Israel is the military nuclear program Irana country that has said on numerous occasions that Israel should disappear. If the matter is seen rationally, both Israel and any other State in its position, which sees its existence threatened by an enemy that wants to acquire nuclear weapons, would seek to eliminate the nuclear danger, the enemy’s nuclear program, before it can build his first nuclear bombHeimovits emphasized.

“A single nuclear bomb, a missile equipped with a nuclear warhead, can do more damage than the 180 conventional missiles that Iran launched on Tuesday, even more damage than 500 or 1,000.”explained the analyst.

Heimovits said that the head of the International Atomic Energy AgencyRafael Grossi, has said that in a matter of weeks Iran could have 90% enriched uranium for two nuclear bombsalthough it also needs to have other advanced systems such as navigation, in addition to miniaturizing the nuclear warheads to be able to put them on a missile. “No one knows how close Iran is to this, it probably is. We could talk about months or weeks.”

“If Israel launches a major attack on Israel’s nuclear program Iranthis can generate new clashes between both countries. But let’s not forget that there are no common borders between the two. It is more than 1,200 kilometers away. Geographic distance would limit the scope of a direct military clash. What is not known is Iran’s reaction if its nuclear industry is attacked, it could threaten to block the Persian Gulf, although that is in the realm of uncertainty,” Heimovits said.

For its part, Carlos Novoaan international analyst specialized in Middle Eastern issues, told The Commerce that he is not surprised by the attack of Iran because it is a retaliation for the ferocious and massive offensive that Israel inflicted on Hezbollah in Lebanon, causing the death of even its top leader Hassan Nasrallah.

“You have to understand that Iran is the largest Shiite power in the Muslim world and Hezbollah is a Shiite group. Hezbollah is another actor in Lebanon, it is not the one that has total control, but it does have a lot of influence because it is a political party with an armed wing, with a presence in the Cabinet, in Parliament and with great social support.”Novoa remarked.

“So, Iran has felt directly hit and has launched an offensive that has been brutal on Israel, with 180 missiles, an unprecedented act, perhaps one of the largest attacks that Israel has received in its recent history, but which has not had a massive number of deaths as would be expected due to the great anti-missile system that Israel has, and also the support of the United States that has participated in the defense with its missile diversion system. From the Israeli point of view, it is a triumph to have had no victims, although these types of actions do generate tremendous stress throughout the country, which is very small,” Indian.

Novoa considers that Israel’s response may determine whether both countries enter into direct confrontation, “who have avoided it until now, especially Iran, which is a main actor in the Middle Eastwhich disputes leadership in the Persian Gulf with Saudi Arabia. Iran now has an enemy to eliminate in Israel, but it is not going to do so because Iran is avoiding a direct escalation by all means. When it is inevitable he will do it”.

A direct escalation, according to Novoa, could draw in other powers, such as the United States in defense of Israel and eventually Russia and China in favor of Iran. “Yes, there is a possibility of a worrying escalation. “At this moment, the important thing is that the great powers come to work to stop the violence.”he stated.