A year after October 7: what the Arabs say and what they expect from Israel

October 7 is a tragic day not only for Israel. This date became significant in the history of the Middle East. While Israelis compare October 7 to the Holocaust, Palestinians call the events that followed the “second Nakba” (Catastrophe). They look to the future with horror in Lebanon, and other countries in the region are also worried about the expansion of the conflict. As in Israel, in the Arab world, as well as in Iran, there is no consensus on what is happening.

This overview presents the most typical opinions and voices that are heard in the region. This can help us understand what people think about us and what is expected of us.

Author of the publication: Marianna Belenkaya

“Whoever boasts about October 7th should look at what happened to our people afterwards” – this and other similar statements appeared on Palestinian social networks as a reaction to a statement by Hamas Politburo member Khalid Meshaal on the anniversary of October 7th.

While the entire Arab world today remembered the almost 42 thousand dead in the Gaza Strip (figures based on data from the Hamas Ministry of Health), almost 2 million displaced people, devastation and hunger, Meshaal congratulated the people of Gazan for being able to persevere year in the face of the enemy. According to Meshaal, the Al-Aqsa Flood has brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of the global agenda, and this will benefit the entire region, despite the enormous sacrifices. According to Meshaal, Israel lost because October 7 shook Israelis’ self-confidence, the country is experiencing an existential crisis, and the whole world saw “the true image of the Jewish state.” The Lebanese Hezbollah also spoke in the same spirit in connection with the anniversary, promising to continue “repulsing Israeli aggression, despite great sacrifices.”

There were no official statements from the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah on the anniversary of October 7. At the same time, Adviser to the Head of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud al-Habash, at the request of the Saudi TV channel Al-Hadas, commented on Meshaal’s speech. According to al-Habash, Hamas should call for unity rather than talk about illusions and unrealistic victories. Al-Habash emphasized that for the “Gaza people experiencing genocide,” the main thing is to end the war, and empty slogans are useless. He also accused Iran and Hamas of “trafficking in Palestinian blood.” “Anyone who does not want unity or reconciliation serves Netanyahu’s interests,” he said.

The words of Mashaal and al-Habash actually demonstrate the two poles of social and political debate in the Arab world. Some welcome the actions of Hamas and other “resistance forces,” believing that this will ultimately lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. Others accuse them of dragging the region into war, which has led and may yet lead to enormous casualties, and has also given the Israeli right a free hand, ready to destroy the idea of ​​Palestinian statehood and occupy new Arab territories. But both of them accuse Israel of war crimes and unwillingness to sit down at the negotiating table.

The narrative of the Arab media, no matter what side of the political spectrum they are on, can be boiled down to the following points:

1. What Israel is doing in the Gaza Strip is genocide of the Palestinian people.

2. The US is unable to put pressure on Israel.

3. Israel has a free hand, and it intends to turn both the West Bank and Lebanon into Gaza.

4. The purpose of Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank is to completely destroy the possibility of creating a Palestinian state.

5. Yes, Hamas “made a mistake,” including committing crimes against civilians on October 7 in Israel, but what Israel is doing is even worse. (On this point, the gap is very serious – some call October 7 a disgrace and call on the Arab world to unanimously recognize this crime, others write about “individual mistakes” and “failures” that took place). Both emphasize that October 7 did not arise in a vacuum.

“No matter how terrible it (October 7) was and no matter what the calculations of Hamas and Iran, Operation Al-Aqsa Flow did not fall out of the sky. It is the result of dispossessing people, denying their most basic rights, depriving them of their freedom and dehumanization,” writes Anthony Samrani, editor-in-chief of the French-language Lebanese newspaper L’Orient Le Jour, declaring: “Tens of thousands of deaths, including thousands of children, and the openly racist rhetoric of Jewish supremacists will undoubtedly provoke another October 7th in a few years or decades.” .

He is echoed by one of the most moderate Arab publications, the Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat: “A year after the terrorist attacks of October 7, the Middle East region is floundering in a wave of continuous escalation, with no signs of a resolution of the situation on the horizon. Israel insists on military escalation , ignoring all international initiatives for calm.”

In other articles marking the October 7 anniversary, the newspaper raises questions about both the fate of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas. It is noted that at the moment the PA is fighting for its survival. “A short excursion through social networks is enough to show that the government is in an unenviable position. It is unable to create a political horizon, an economic horizon, provide security and other basics, including non-payment of salaries for the second year in a row,” the article says. It is noted that Israel is taking advantage of the situation by conducting military operations in the West Bank, the purpose of which is seen as an attack on the Palestinian national project. It is noted that the purpose of the escalation on the part of Israel is to prove to the Palestinians that the government is weak, does not protect them and must leave.

As for Hamas, according to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, the movement has suffered enormous damage – military, political, financial, but it is still capable of reviving in the event of a ceasefire. At the same time, Hamas will need outside support to manage the strip – otherwise the Gaza Strip will not be restored. This is largely why Hamas today emphasizes an alliance with the PA, understanding that the international community will only deal with the official Palestinian authorities. This applies not only to Western sponsors, but also to Arab ones.

But the residents of Gaza themselves are not particularly concerned about the question of who will rule the strip after the cessation of hostilities. They think about how to survive, and not only now, but also after the end of the war. There is also an article about this in Al-Sharq al-Awsat. The publication cites questions that many in Gaza are asking: “Who will build houses? How long will we live in tents? How will we provide food for those of our children who remain alive? Where to find the bodies of our loved ones, will we ever be able to see them and how long will we even live?”

Al-Sharq al-Awsat writes that many, especially young people, dream of leaving the Gaza Strip, as there is no future there. But many remain – for a variety of reasons – some cannot leave, others do not want to leave their home. However, on October 7, both in social networks and in the Arab media, there are enough voices still talking about their readiness to “fight the occupiers” and not retreat, and moreover, to take revenge for the “war crimes of the Zionist regime.” These people write that they have endured suffering for a year and are ready to endure further “for the sake of a just cause.”

Few people in the region now understand what the outcome of this war will be, which has affected not only the Gaza Strip, but also several Arab countries, primarily Lebanon. It is important that now, more than ever, the Arab public is asking questions regarding their own destinies: what kind of Palestinian power should be, how to make Lebanon independent of external players. There are more reflections on one’s own mistakes than ever before. But there are also many questions regarding external circumstances. For example, the fate of Iran – whether the ayatollahs’ power there will remain, whether the “axis of resistance” created by Tehran will be broken. Another issue is the future relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. And most importantly: what does Israel intend to do? Against this background, one should pay attention to the statements of the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Jordan, Faisal bin Farhan and Ayman Safadi. “De-escalation and finding a path to lasting peace in the midst of ruin and despair requires courage and leadership. The time has come to embark on an irreversible path towards a solution that will lead to two independent Palestinian and Israeli states living side by side,” the Saudi minister wrote in an article in Financial Times. “Peace cannot be built on the basis of occupation and resentment; true security for Israel will be achieved by recognizing the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. By reaching a solution that allows both peoples to coexist in peace, we can break the cycle of violence,” he adds, shifting responsibility to future for Israel. “His intransigence is only exacerbating tensions and eroding trust, making diplomatic negotiations increasingly difficult, prolonging the suffering on both sides and pushing the region ever closer to wider war,” Faisal bin Farhan said.

In the same spirit, Ayman Safadi’s statement made during his speech on the sidelines of the General Assembly in New York after the speech of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “The Israeli Prime Minister came here today and said that Israel is surrounded by those who want to destroy it , the enemy. We are here – members of the Muslim-Arab Committee, empowered by 57 Arab and Muslim countries – and I can tell you here in no uncertain terms that we are all ready right now to guarantee the security of Israel in the context of the end of Israel’s occupation and the creation of a Palestinian state.” He also added that all Arab countries condemned the killing of Israeli civilians and want a just peace, but the Israeli government rejected peace and chose war.

The words of the Saudi and Jordanian ministers can be treated differently. This is both a warning and at the same time a signal that dialogue is still possible, as well as support for Israel from moderate Arab countries. There are also many questions here, all of them related to “plans for the day after the war,” a war that is not yet over. Hamas, Hezbollah and other “resistance forces” are not going to give up, they are still encouraged by Iran.