Why is Tampa Bay so vulnerable to hurricanes and the worst is expected with the arrival of Milton?

The last time a storm the size of Hurricane Milton hit Tampa Bay was in 1921.when the city was a quiet town of a few hundred thousand inhabitants. Today it is one of the fastest growing metropolises in the United States, with more than 3 million inhabitants and extremely vulnerable to flooding due to climate change. As Milton moves toward Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, many experts fear that a century of good fortune is over.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center predicts waves in Tampa Bay of 8 to 12 feet (2.5 to 3 meters) above normal tidal conditions, and 4 to 6 inches (10 to 15 centimeters) of rain per day. Hurricane Milton.

The entire western coast of Florida is particularly susceptible to high waves. Last week, Hurricane Helene, which made landfall further west, about 150 miles (240 kilometers) from Tampa, managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to strong waves of between 1.5 and 2.5 meters. (between 5 and 8 feet) above normal level.

“If it had made landfall just a little bit further south and east, it would have been much, much worse,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.

The increased susceptibility is due in part to topography. Florida’s coast on the Gulf of Mexico is shallow, with a gently sloping slope.. The higher seabed acts as a barrier that holds back storm water, causing the water to overflow onto the surface. The opposite is true on the eastern coast of Florida, where the seafloor drops suddenly a few miles from the shore.

“You can have the same storm, the same intensity, the same everything, but very different waves,” Klotzbach observed.

A 2015 report by Karen Clark and Co., a company in Boston that specializes in natural disaster forecasting, concluded that Tampa Bay is the place in the United States most vulnerable to flooding following a hurricane and could suffer $175 billion in damages.

While Floridians are no strangers to storms, Tampa has not been in the path of a major hurricane in more than a century.

In that period, the area has had explosive growth. Tens of thousands of people have moved there during the COVID-19 pandemic, many of them to islands near Clearwater and St. Petersburg, above the usually placid, emerald waters of the Gulf. More than 51,000 people moved there between 2022 and 2023, making it the fifth-fastest-growing metropolitan area in the United States, according to census data.

Longtime residents, after numerous false alarms and nearby storms like Irma in 2017, may not be prepared for a direct hit. Legend has it that blessings from Native Americans who lived in that area and who built mounds to scare away invaders have protected the place from strong storms for centuries.

MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said a hurricane in Tampa is like “the black swan”the worst case scenario of what experts have warned for years.

“It is a large population. It is very exposed and very inexperienced, and that bodes badly,” said Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years. “I always thought Tampa was the city we should worry about the most.”

Behind all the waves and winds is climate change. Rising temperatures, coming from greenhouse gases, They have warmed the oceans, they have caused sea levels to rise and have increased atmospheric humidity, all factors that determine the strength of a hurricane and its potential to cause flooding.

“Due to climate change, climate models predict that hurricanes will cause heavier rainfall and an increased risk of coastal flooding due to higher waves caused by rising sea levels,” said Angela Colbert, a scientist at the US Jet Propulsion Laboratory. NASA, in a 2022 report.

On Monday, the National Hurricane Center rated Milton a Category 5 storm because its intensity increased to 120 kilometers per hour (75 miles per hour) in the previous 24 hours. One reason could be particularly high water temperatures, which act as fuel for the storm.

“The speed with which Milton escalated is incredible”Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miami, said in an email. “For months I have been warning: Gulf waters are at record or near-record levels.”

He added that, due to sea level rise caused by climate change, the waters of Hurricane Andrew would be 7 inches (17 centimeters) higher today than where they were when the storm hit Florida 30 years ago.

Authorities in the area began issuing evacuation orders for six counties around Tampa Bay on Monday. where about 4 million inhabitants live. Particularly at risk are residents of mobile homes, recreational vehicles and manufactured homes unable to withstand 110 mph (177 kph) winds.

Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, strongly urged coastal residents to evacuate, noting that island residents who died during Hurricane Ian in 2022 would be alive today if it had crossed the bridge and found refuge on the mainland.

“Please, if you are in the Tampa Bay area, you have to evacuate. If an evacuation order has been issued, I beg you, implore you, to evacuate. Drowning deaths due to flood waters are 100 percent avoidable if they stay out of it,” Guthrie stated.

Almost inexplicably, the storms have bypassed Tampa: Most of the events in the Gulf have affected areas far north of the city. The last time the Tampa area was hit by the eye of a major hurricane was on October 25, 1921.. The hurricane had no official name, but today it is known as the Tarpon Springs storm, after the coastal town where it entered.

The surge generated by that hurricane, estimated as Category 3 with winds of 207 kph (129 mph), was estimated at 3.3 meters (11 feet). At least eight people died and damage amounted to about $5 million.

Today, the tourist area famous for its white sand beaches has grown rapidly, with an estimated economy of almost $200 billion. Hurricane Milton threatens to wipe out all that development.