Kashmir takes a stand against loss of autonomy in regional elections

It is a triumph for Kashmir’s former Prime Minister Omar Abdullah: the 54-year-old leader of the National Conference (NC) has clearly won the election in the northern Indian region. However, his victory has a bitter note. The Himalayan region has been directly subordinate to the government of Narendra Modi in Delhi since its autonomous status was abolished in 2019. Since then, important powers have rested with their representative, the governor. As prime minister, Abdullah will have limited power.

Abdullah on Tuesday renewed his call for the restoration of Kashmir’s autonomous status. The election was a “mandate of the people of Jammu and Kashmir for the re-establishment of statehood,” he said after the election results were announced. If he is elected prime minister by the regional parliament in Srinagar, he will lobby Modi’s government in Delhi to restore Kashmir to its former status.

The Himalayan Valley was given to India upon independence in 1947, although its population is predominantly Muslim. This led to war with Pakistan, which also claimed the region. In return, Kashmir, along with the Hindu-majority region of Jammu, received special status in India. According to Article 370 of the constitution, it had the right to its own constitution, its own flag and extensive internal autonomy.

Modi downgraded Kashmir to a union territory

However, in August 2019, the Narendra Modi government abolished Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomous status and downgraded the state to a union territory under Delhi’s direct control. Annulling Article 370 had been a long-standing election promise of Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Modi’s government used violence to suppress the protests against the move in Kashmir. Numerous critics were imprisoned, including Omar Abdullah.

Abdullah comes from an influential family that has significantly shaped Kashmir’s politics since 1947. His grandfather Sheikh Abdullah was Kashmir’s first prime minister after independence. His father Farooq was also the region’s head of government in the 1980s. Farooq still holds the chairmanship of the National Conference today. Omar Abdullah himself was Chief Minister in Srinagar from 2009 to 2014.

His party and his family are therefore closely linked to the history of Kashmir. However, critics accuse them of having too often compromised with the central government in order to maintain their own power. The NC always rejected the secession of Kashmir and advocated that it remain part of India. The party maintained this position even after the outbreak of an armed uprising in 1987, which led to an escalation of violence in the region.

Abdullah’s protest boosted his popularity

During its time in power, the party acted as a defender of Kashmiri rights to Delhi, but it was also implicated in state repression. In 1999, the NC even formed an alliance with the BJP, after which Omar Abdullah briefly became trade and foreign minister in Delhi. For his party, the alliance with the Hindu nationalists proved to be a mistake and it suffered a debacle in the 2002 Kashmir regional elections.

Since then, Omar Abdullah’s party has distanced itself from the BJP. After Article 370 was abolished in August 2019, he emerged as a strong critic of the decision. The fact that he was imprisoned longer than other politicians strengthened his credibility. However, he suffered a setback in June’s national election when he lost his parliamentary seat to Abdul Rashid, a sharp-tongued and controversial supporter of Kashmir’s self-reliance.

The gaunt politician, commonly called Engineer Rashid, won the election despite being imprisoned on charges of funding separatist groups. He was released on bail for the current regional election so that he could take part in the election campaign. Many observers expected him to cost the NC votes. Ultimately, Rashid’s party fell short of expectations and only managed to win one seat.

Support for the separatists has recently declined

The Kashmiris have shown that they want a return to autonomous status. However, they rejected the radical demands of the separatists. The majority also did not follow the calls for a boycott. Many Kashmiris apparently saw the election as an opportunity to make their voices heard again five years after the loss of autonomy. Even in separatist strongholds, voter turnout this year was higher than in previous elections.

Despite discontent over the loss of autonomy, support for the separatists has declined. Authorities say few young men have joined Pakistan-backed independence fighters in the past two years. They have recently carried out several attacks in Jammu, which had previously been spared from violence. But otherwise the number of attacks is falling and is at a long-term low.

The regional election can be interpreted as a sign that voters are ready to give the democratic process a chance after decades of violence. However, it is uncertain whether the demand for the restoration of autonomous status in Delhi will be heard. As future prime minister, Omar Abdullah is faced with a dilemma: in order to maintain his credibility, he cannot simply accept the status quo. However, his chances of persuading Modi to return autonomy currently appear slim.