Towards an attack on Iran: these are the nuclear facilities on the agenda

The world is closely following Israel’s attack on Iran, and wondering about the nature of the attack and the targets that will be targeted. In the US, Israel is being urged to refrain from any attack against targets related to Iran’s nuclear program, despite calls in Israel and the world (for example, Donald Trump), to attack the sensitive facilities now.Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called on Tuesday to take advantage of the opportunity in which Iran is exposed and vulnerable, against the backdrop of the heavy blow suffered by Hezbollah, and to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. “Now, when the arms of the Iranian terrorist octopus, Hezbollah and Hamas, the strongest arms are really weakened, for the first time we have the ability to act against Iran without fearing a terrible and intolerable reaction,” Bennett wrote. Yesterday, Donald Trump also said that “Iran will soon have a nuclear weapon”, and expressed support for the possibility of an attack.

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, American General Eric Corrilla, commander of the US Army’s Central Command (“CENTCOM”) who visited Israel last week, warned Defense Minister Galant and senior security officials against an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. According to a report In the New York Times, it is unlikely that Israel will attack the nuclear facilities this time, leaving this option on the table in case Iran attacks again and chooses to escalate the situation.

Against the background of the warnings of the USA to avoid an attack on the nuclear facilities – a fundamental question arises as to what can be achieved in such an attack without their assistance. In the Iranian newspaper “Tehran Times”, which is published in English and largely reflects the mindset of the government in Tehran, it was written yesterday that “the calls are increasing the public in Iran to move towards a nuclear bomb.” The front page of the newspaper states that “Israeli aggression encourages the public in Iran to call for the development of nuclear weapons.”

The uranium enrichment facility in Natanz

• The uranium enrichment facility at Natanz is one of the largest nuclear facilities in Iran and the most important for its nuclear program.
• Iran enriches uranium at the Bentanez facility on a large scale, using advanced centrifuges of various types.
• In May 2023, it was published in the New York Times that Iran is building an underground nuclear facility in Natanz – and moving the nuclear activity there underground.
• According to the estimates, based in part on the amount of dirt removed from the site, the new underground facility was built at a depth of 80-100 meters.
• The nuclear facility in Natanz has been attacked at least three times in the past, by Israel – according to foreign publications.
• In 2011, a computer worm damaged the on-site control systems that control the centrifuges in the facility.
• In July 2020, an explosion occurred at the site, and Iran estimated that it may have been a cyber attack.
• In April 2021, there was a power outage at the site which caused an explosion and great damage. Iran accused Israel of a cyber attack.
• On April 19, it was reported that Israel attacked the radar position of an S-300 air defense battery connected to the air defense system of the Natanz nuclear facility – allegedly in response to the Iranian attack on Israel in April.

Purdue Uranium Enrichment Facility

• The nuclear facility in Purdue is considered an important component of the uranium enrichment process, and to a large extent it is considered one of its complex and challenging factors.
• The enrichment facility in Purdue is located deep in the ground in a mountainous area, and is considered well protected against the possibility of an air attack. As part of the nuclear agreement between Iran and the major powers in 2015 (JCPOA), enrichment at the facility was completely stopped, and resumed in November 2019 – about a year and a half after Trump’s decision to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement.
• In June, it was announced that Iran had greatly increased uranium enrichment at Purdue.
• In Tehran, we informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that they had decided to add a large amount of centrifuges and enrichment facilities to the underground facilities in Purdue and Natanz.

 

 

 

 

 

 

• IAEA inspectors confirmed to the Washington Post that in recent months construction and infrastructure operations have begun at Purdue.
• In 2020, the Associated Press reported that Iran had begun building another part of the Purdue facility.
• In August 2016, Iran announced that it had placed S-300 air defense systems in the area of ​​the Purdue facility.

According to information available online, there are many nuclear sites and facilities in Iran, but not all of them are related to the nuclear program. Two other sensitive targets in Iran are the nuclear centers in the capital Tehran and the city of Isfahan. A lot of research activity is carried out in these centers, and in any scenario where Iran chooses to develop nuclear weapons, a central role is expected, for example in the planning and development of an explosive device.

Danny Sitrinovich, a research associate in the Iran program at INSS and former head of the Iran branch in the research division, says in a conversation with N12 that the significance of an Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities will, with a high probability, push Iran to “cross the Rubicon”, that is, to move forward with the development of nuclear weapons.

Sitrinovich estimates that the degree of success of an Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities, certainly without US military aid, has a low chance of severely damaging Iran’s nuclear program. “The Iranians built their plan while applying the Iraqi lesson well. If in Iraq they were concentrated on one reactor – Iran took a program that is based on enrichment and not on a reactor, in a way that allows them to decentralize the program.”

 

 

 

He points out that along with the two large enrichment facilities in Natanz and Purdue, Iran has other facilities related to the nuclear program, such as the facility for processing uranium in Isfahan and the facility for erecting centrifuges in Karaj. “The plan is very decentralized – even if you attack one place, there are still other places left,” says Citrinovich.

“The operative challenge”, he explains, “even after you met the challenge of reaching Iran, is a new challenge that Israel does not recognize.” Beyond the decentralization and dispersion of Iran’s nuclear program, its great advantage, as far as Tehran is concerned, is that the entire program is almost entirely based on Iranian activity and knowledge. “Even if there is an event tomorrow, whether an attack or an earthquake, and the facilities are severely damaged – they still have the knowledge and they won’t need anyone to rebuild everything.”

 

 

 

He adds and emphasizes that in the event of an Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities, Iran will most likely withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and will immediately interrupt the activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors working at many facilities in Iran. “There is a tendency to underestimate the supervision of the IAEA, but the attack will have serious consequences.”

Citrinovich explains that even in the most optimistic scenario, if indeed the facilities are completely destroyed – there is no doubt that this will delay the plan in the short term. On the other hand, in the long run, there is no doubt that this will push Iran towards nuclear weapons. “Currently, there is no indication that Iran has decided to cross the Rubicon – but such an attack will inevitably push them there. Even if we hit the enrichment facilities – we will not be able to reset the program to zero. The program is completely decentralized and it seems that the kinetic solution (a military attack) will not be applicable enough.”

The amount of uranium enriched by Iran

In a quarterly report of the International Energy Agency from the end of August, it was reported that Iran increased its amount of enriched uranium to a level of up to 60% by 22.6 kg – and possesses 164.7 kg of uranium enriched to a level of up to 60%. In addition, Iran increased the amount of enriched uranium to the level of 20% by 62.6 kg and holds 813.9 kg of uranium enriched to this level. In this quarter, Iran’s total amount of enriched uranium was reduced by 449.5 kg and it holds a total of 5,751.8 kg of enriched uranium at various levels.

According to the IAEA announcement, to develop a nuclear bomb, theoretically, an amount of 42 kg of uranium enriched to the level of 60% or 125 kg of uranium enriched to the level of 20% is required. Because of this, Iran possesses the amount that is theoretically sufficient for the development of At least 10 nuclear bombs.

The three necessary elements for the development of an effective and active nuclear weapon by Iran

1. Sufficient level and quantity of fissile material (enriched uranium): According to one estimate, the Islamic Republic is a few days away from achieving the goal – if and when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei makes an explicit decision. Where does Iran stand? Very close to achieving the ability, given a clear decision
2. Means of carrying the bomb: What can carry a nuclear bomb is a ballistic missile or an airplane. “We know that Iran has the ability to launch satellites into space, and carrying a satellite or a bomb – a sensitive component with complicated electronics – is similar in this respect,” said Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Tamir Himan, director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), former head of “Today, Iran does not have a plane capable of dropping a bomb, but if the deal for Russian SU-35 fighter jets goes through in exchange for Iranian assistance in Russia’s war in Ukraine, then the Iranians will have this capability as well.” Where does Iran stand? She has the ability
3. Explosive device – the most complicated component of the weapons program as far as the Iranians are concerned. This is a special device that can bring about a precise explosion of the fissile material and cause an intense nuclear explosion. Where does Iran stand? She doesn’t have that ability. In the worst case scenario – Iran could develop such a facility within a few months