“Ayatollahs dream of nuclear bomb, it would be game changer”

An Iran equipped with a nuclear weapon would be a “game changer” capable of subverting the balance in the Middle East. Marco Di Liddo, director of the Center for International Studies (CeSI), stated this to Adnkronos, according to which “the Islamic Republic would like the bomb, it is its dream, but it is not yet reasonably close to realizing one. The distance is not small, but not too much.”

Di Liddo then comments on the rumors, which have circulated in recent days, which have associated an earthquake recorded in the Iranian desert on 5 October with a possible test of a nuclear bomb by the ayatollahs, while Israeli retaliation against Tehran for the missile attack seems to be approaching of October 1st.

“There is not enough data to credibly support this hypothesis, what is reported by the seismology institutes is not enough. We would need satellite revelations on heat and also data on wave propagation, which differ depending on whether they are earthquakes or nuclear weapons. Until we have these data, we cannot ascertain the origin” of the earthquake, explains the director of CeSi. Iran has not officially commented on what happened.

Regarding the announced Israeli retaliation, Di Liddo believes that the Israeli government is faced with “two options”. An attack on the nuclear sites would have “an important military value, but above all a political and symbolic one because it is prospective” and would hit “Israel’s flagship enemy programme”. The other option is to target not only launch sites and military infrastructure, but also oil and refining facilities. “This would hit the Pasdaran’s piggy bank”, says the expert, according to whom such an attack would have “a significant economic impact in the short term” and would also have repercussions on a social level, “with the Iranian population already suffering from sanctions “.

Di Liddo argues that any Iranian response “will depend on the damage inflicted” in Israel’s retaliation for playing “cat and mouse” with the Islamic Republic. According to the expert, to launch a “major” military campaign on Iran, the Jewish state needs “logistical and intelligence support” from the US, which “is still reticent to support an action of this type” . For Di Liddo, “Israel’s game is to hit Iran in such a way as to push it to respond in an even more massive manner and, at that point, try to pull the Americans in.”