Scholz can only promise Ukraine a few more weapons

 

It is an unequal battle that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is currently fighting. One opponent is called Russia and is trying to destroy his country with enormous military effort. The other is called “Milton,” which severely devastated Florida and ensured that US President Joe Biden had to cancel his trip to Germany and the Ramstein summit on Saturday.

Over the past two days, Zelensky has tried to mitigate the impact of these potentially devastating developments on his country. On a hastily arranged tour to London, Paris, Rome and Berlin, he called for more military support from the Europeans. It could be urgently needed because, three and a half weeks before the US presidential election, the window of opportunity for further arms aid from the government in Washington is gradually closing.

It is unclear what Joe Biden would have offered the Ukrainian president on Saturday in Ramstein. Zelensky himself wanted to present his “victory plan” to the heads of state and government of the most important supporting states. He had stated several times that the aim was to force Russia, if possible, to end the war through diplomatic channels. But this requires further military strength and the help of Western partners. For Zelensky, this includes the release of long-range precision weapons in order to be able to attack targets in the Russian hinterland.

If things go badly, Zelenskiy will only receive the weapons and the permission to deploy from Washington once the new government has started work. This could take until spring and depends not least on the outcome of the election. Donald Trump has already threatened to stop aid to Ukraine. Selensky could now be even more dependent on his European partners.

EU launches 35 billion loan

In Berlin on Friday, however, he met a host who did not want to expand his direct aid to Ukraine, but rather reduce it. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has set aside 4 billion euros in the draft budget for next year to support the Ukrainians in their defense fight. That’s only roughly half of this year’s budget (7.5 billion euros). Scholz rejected criticism of the cut with reference to a planned $50 billion loan from the G-7 for Ukraine.

 

This project cleared a significant hurdle this week. The Council of the European Union approved a 35 billion euro loan for Ukraine. This is what several media outlets reported. The money is part of the G-7 loan. Further amounts are expected to come from the USA, Japan and Canada. According to the plans, interest and repayment will come from “windfall profits”, i.e. interest income from Russian state assets that the EU has frozen.

The G-7 countries approved the $50 billion loan at their summit in Italy in June. In addition to Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Canada and the USA, this group of states also includes the European Union as a whole. The German Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the Liberals expressed the expectation in the summer that Ukraine would use this money to cover a significant part of its military needs in the future.

Ukraine urgently needs air defense systems

Whether that will really be the case will depend not least on military developments in the coming months. With winter the fighting on the front in Donbass could subside. But the experience of the past few years shows that the Russian air raids on energy, heat and water supplies as well as industries important to the war effort continue even harder.

What the Ukrainians need first and foremost are modern air defense systems, including anti-missiles. The USA and Germany in particular have already delivered some of these. There are now three Patriot and five Iris-T systems from the Federal Republic alone that are being used to protect Kiev and other Ukrainian cities against rockets, drones and cruise missiles. Another Iris-T system is scheduled to go to the Ukraine this year from the manufacturer Diehl.

That’s what German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Friday at the meeting with Zelenskiy, packaged in two “military support packages”. One, worth 600 million euros, has already been delivered to Ukraine and, in addition to the fifth Iris-T system, also included battle and armored personnel carriers, self-propelled howitzers, artillery ammunition and drones. Mind you: These weapons are already mostly on site in Ukraine. The intention to deliver them was known for a long time. And the long-range precision weapons that Zelensky so urgently demanded, such as Taurus, are not included.

Scholz also announced a further support package worth 1.4 billion euros in Berlin – together with Belgium, Denmark and Norway. It contains, among other things, the sixth Iris-T system as well as other tanks, vehicles and guns. Scholz called on the European Parliament to quickly clear the way for the European share of the $50 billion loan from the G-7 states following the European Council’s presumed decision. According to reports, the first parts of the loan will be paid out at the beginning of next year.

It’s not just a lack of money

But money alone won’t help Ukraine. Even if it had enough, the necessary weapons and ammunition would first have to be produced. This takes time, especially since the European arms industry does not run on a war economy like the Russian one. When it comes to artillery shells, the ratio between Ukraine and Russia recently improved to 1:3. In the spring it was significantly more disadvantageous for the defenders. But the current production of missiles for Iris-T and Patriot, for example, cannot cover the enormous needs of Ukraine or other countries.

Zelenskiy is therefore dependent on European partners continuing to provide him with weapons and ammunition from their own armed forces. However, the willingness to do so decreases with each passing month of the war. Germany is already having difficulty recovering the equipment that the Bundeswehr gave to Ukraine.

The federal government refuses to provide the money needed for this. At the same time, it guarantees NATO additional troops, including the necessary equipment. This leads to the conclusion that Zelenskiy can hardly expect any major arms deliveries from the German armed forces in the coming year, even if the USA were to fail for the time being.

Germany is not an isolated case. Things are no better in France, Great Britain and Italy. After decades of troop reductions, these countries are also keeping their equipment and ammunition stocks together. Zelensky must hope that European arms production will start more quickly. However, companies complain about a lack of reliable, long-term orders.

Russians want Ukraine to surrender

Meanwhile, Russia does not appear to be making any compromises in its war aims. While Zelensky has signaled his willingness to negotiate, Putin does not want to engage in talks with the Ukrainian side. He has the Russian people at his side.

More than half of Russians wanted the war to end and negotiations to begin, said pollster Lev Gudkow from the Moscow Levada Center on Deutschlandfunk on Friday. However, when his employees asked citizens what the negotiations should be about, the vast majority answered that Ukraine had to capitulate.

According to Gudkov, there is a “desire for the total defeat of Ukraine” in Russian society. There is no pity there for the Ukrainians and no sense of guilt either. The war will last until Putin runs out of resources.