Polls anticipate one of the closest elections in US history

Surveys predict that presidential elections on November 5between the democrat Kamala Harris and the republican Donald Trump will be some of the closest in the history of the United States.

An average of site polls RealClearPolitics now assigns the vice president a slight two-point lead nationally about the tycoon, but the number is still within the margin of error.

And while each election is different, recent experiences They set off an alarm in the Democratic ranks: In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 4.6 points ahead of Trump at this point and in 2020 Joe Biden surpassed him by a comfortable 9.7. However, she ended up losing (although not in the popular vote) and the current president won, but just barely.

In a complex and controversial system, in the United States the candidate with the most votes may not win but rather the one that reaches a majority of 270 of the 538 votes of the Electoral College, adding many states or states with great demographic weight.

It is known that 38 of the 50 states have voted for the same political party between 2000 and 2016. For example, California or New York are “blue” states because they always elect Democratic candidates and others like Oklahoma, Arkansas or Texas are “red” because they lean Republican.

That is why the winner is almost always decided by a handful of states known as “swing states”, that is, they oscillate from one party to another depending on the election. Everything indicates that The presidential elections this time will depend on 7 key districtswith “purple” or more mixed electorates: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, where Trump and Harris fight head to head and dedicate all their time to the final stretch of the campaign.

Poll averages compiled by RealClearPolitics show just tenths in favor of Harris or Trump in these key states. Anything can happen.

Analysts believe Harris only needs to win in the “Rust Belt,” Pennsylvania, Wisconsin y Michiganto obtain the necessary 270 votes in the Electoral College and win the election, unless there are surprising results elsewhere.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina y Georgiawill have enough votes to be declared the winner, unless there are surprises in other states.

Trump could also win if he beats Harris in the Sunbelt swing states of Arizona, Georgia y North Carolinaand also adds Wisconsin o Michigan.

According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, For 81% of registered voters, the economy will be very important in these elections. Other key topics will be health (65%); the nomination of Supreme Court judges (63%); foreign policy (62%); violent crimes (61%); immigration (61%); gun policy (56%); abortion (51%); racial inequality (37%) and climate change (37%).

After replacing Biden in the presidential candidacy, Harris managed to mobilize the Democratic party and many who were reluctant to vote for any candidate. It added tens of thousands of new volunteers and especially young people.

According to polls, those who prefer the vice president are progressive voters from large cities who have completed high school or university education and also from more diverse backgrounds. With an Indian mother and a Jamaican father, Harris has increased her influence in the African-American and Asian electorate and has also somewhat stopped the bleeding among Latinosas these traditionally Democratic voters have become more conservative and lately were slowly leaning toward Trump.

It has managed to revitalize young people and women who look forward to it becoming the first female president in the history of the United States.

The magnate’s main strength lies in the white men, without a college education, who live in the interior states of the country and outside urban centers. Many of them have been victims of deindustrialization and believe that the new economies – especially the “green” ones – have displaced them.

Trump is also supported by more religious sectorswho are grateful that the magnate in his previous administration appointed three conservative judges to the Supreme Court who limited, for example, the right to abortion that is now determined in each state. Trumpists feel immigrants are a threat to the country and Anglo-Saxon identity. And they believe that the economy of the last four years has not benefited them.

At this point it is difficult for the bases of each party to change candidates when voting. The key to these elections, which are very close in the polls, lies in three factors.

First of all, What will moderates and independents do?: It is a thin stripe that in principle resists voting for a candidate with Trump’s personality and dark and chaotic background, but they are not too happy with Biden’s management, especially the economic one. Will principles or the pocketbook triumph?

Secondly, there is a factor that can be decisive, which is the “shameful” vote: It is possible that many do not want to admit in the polls that they are going to vote for a convicted candidate like Trump and then there is a surprise at the polls and the election is not close. Some experts suggest that it could even be the other way around: Republicans who detest the magnate and are ashamed to admit that they will vote for a progressive like Harris to end “Trumpism” in the party.

Third, how many people will go out to vote: Democrats are convinced that if they manage to get the disenchanted, especially young people, to the polls, they will have a great chance of reaching the White House.