The elimination of Sinwar: “October surprise” for Biden and Harris

In the history of US presidential elections, a phenomenon known as the “October Surprise” is known, a dramatic event that occurs a few weeks before election day that changes the campaign and tips the scales in favor of one or another candidate.

In this year’s election there were so many twists and turns such as Biden’s retirement and his replacement by Kamala Harris, two assassination attempts on Donald Trump’s life, Harris’ victory over him in the televised debate and the loss of Tim Wells, her vice presidential candidate in the vice presidential debate, and two more terrible hurricanes, that it seemed that the October surprise had occurred Already in the summer. Sinwar’s elimination has the potential of an “October surprise” in favor of Harris.

It took the United States ten years to eliminate Osama bin Laden, the Al Qaeda leader who planned and executed the massive 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. It took Israel a year to eliminate Sinwar who is responsible for the October 7 massacre. Biden and a series of European leaders welcomed the assassination and for the first time since the beginning of the war in Gaza, the American and international media dealt extensively with the murderers and the Hamas organization.

Until today, these two were almost completely absent from the political and media discourse that mainly referred to the “Palestinians” and their suffering in Gaza, until the perpetrators of the massacre and the war were almost completely forgotten.

After Harris closed the gap in the polls against Trump and even led against him, in recent days it seems that she is losing ground and the balance of power between her and Trump, especially in the seven swing states, showed a mathematical or statistical tie. Fearing a regional war, last week the Biden-Harris administration demanded that Israel refrain from military attacks on the capitals, and from damaging Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in response to the barrage of ballistic missiles it launched into Israel.

A regional war seems to hurt Harris’ chances of winning, while the assassination of Yahya Sinwar is seen as an event that could help her, by removing an obstacle to reaching a deal to release the hostages and a cease-fire in Gaza.

The feeling in Jerusalem, in Washington and in the capitals of the Middle East is that the elimination of Sinwar is a defining event that, after the elimination of Nasrallah and the severe damage to Hezbollah, created momentum for the end of the war with Iran and its affiliates. Biden wants to end the war on all fronts both to help Harris’ campaign and to add an accomplished chapter to his legacy. Harris’ schedule is more pressing because there are only two and a half weeks until Election Day. Biden will have a few more months to complete the job, until January 20, 2025, when the new president takes office.

Biden and Harris do not believe in Netanyahu and they suspect that he will not rush to take advantage of the opportunity created by the assassination of Sinwar, both because the extremists in his coalition, Ben Gabir and Smotrich, will not let him reach an agreement with Hamas that includes significant concessions, and because he is interested in Trump’s victory, and therefore not will want to give the administration an achievement that will help Harris in the race for the White House. They also suspect him of wanting to drag them into an all-out attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

For more than a month and a half, Biden avoided talking to Netanyahu, but in the last week they spoke twice, the first time about the Israeli response to Iran’s ballistic missile barrage, and yesterday, about the hostage deal and the day after in Gaza. Biden congratulated Israel on the elimination but also made clear to Netanyahu the immediate and urgent need to take advantage of the opportunity to reach a comprehensive ceasefire. At the same time, he and all senior administration officials publicly expressed American expectations.

Biden answered in the negative to the question of whether Netanyahu is doing enough to secure a deal for the release of the abductees. Harris detailed the American expectations of the resulting situation: “Israel has the right to defend itself, Hamas has been destroyed and its leadership eliminated. This brings us a moment and an opportunity for a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of the abductees, and an end to the suffering of the Gazans. It is time to start the day after.”

American policy oscillates between the fear of a regional war and taking advantage of the opportunity that opened up with the elimination of Sinwar. The elimination is a “gift” to the Harris campaign and a potential “October surprise.” He could make gains both for Harris in the final stretch of the race for the White House and for Biden’s complex legacy.

However, the realization of the opportunity depends on the consequences of the elimination on the positions of Sinwar’s heirs, the constraints of Netanyahu’s coalition and the intensity of the American pressure on the mediators, Qatar and Egypt, so that they exert heavy pressure on Sinwar’s heirs. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will come to the region to find out all these questions and apply pressure. The election clock in Washington is ticking and in order for the elimination to yield a significant breakthrough, it needs to be realized within about two weeks.

Prof. Eitan Gilboa is an expert on the United States at Bar-Ilan University and a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.