Yahya Sinouar, the head of the Hamas politburo, the main inspirer and organizer of the terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, is dead. This is a turning point in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which could affect the overall situation in the region. However, predicting how events will develop is not easy. It is unknown how Sinouar’s death will affect the fate of the Israeli hostages. Much depends on who takes Sinouar’s place and the extent to which the successor controls the situation in the Gaza Strip. Then the search for answers to other questions will begin. How the leading Arab media see the situation is in the article Newsru.co.il.
Author of the publication: Marianna Belenkaya
The fate of Hamas without Sinouar
The structure of Hamas provides for the survival of the movement in the event of a change or liquidation of its leaders. And after Sinouar, Hamas will not cease to exist. However, most Arab media and experts believe that Sinouar’s death is a blow to the movement, primarily to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, from which it will not be easy to recover.
Sinouar became the main symbol of the “resistance forces” that were able to deal the most serious blow to Israel since the founding of the Islamic Resistance Movement, and will remain so in the memory of Palestinians, even those who are not supporters of Hamas. He is the person who understood the psychology of the Israelis better than many in Hamas and managed to turn the movement towards Iran. But most importantly, Sinouar became a link between the political leadership of Hamas and its military leaders, primarily in the Gaza Strip. This became especially important after October 7, 2023 and was confirmed in the election of Sinoir to the post of head of the Politburo in August 2024.
Sources for the Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat say that without Sinouar, decision-making will be more difficult and slower, especially regarding coordination between political leaders in Qatar and warlords in Gaza.
After the destruction of Sinouar, it will be extremely difficult for anyone who takes over the leadership of Hamas after him to agree to a ceasefire, Al-Sharq al-Awsat experts say. However, much depends on the regional context – primarily on how the situation around Iran will develop. Another aspect is intra-Palestinian agreements.
In early October, regular negotiations were held in Cairo between Fatah and Hamas, who were trying to agree on the management of the Gaza Strip after the war. Then nothing came of it again. Now the situation may change.
Hamas is at a crossroads. And there are several scenarios he can follow.
The first is the election of the head of the Politburo from within the Gaza Strip. Many experts believe that this will be a demonstration of Hamas’s inflexibility and confirmation of its course to continue the fight against Israel. The second scenario – a leader who is outside the sector is tentatively assessed as Hamas’s readiness for negotiations. The real question is how much Hamas leaders located abroad can influence the situation inside the Gaza Strip. The fate of the hostages and the question of a ceasefire remain in the hands of the field commanders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza; whether there is unity and coordination between them is unknown. That’s why some experts say negotiating a deal with Hamas will become even more difficult after Sinouar’s death. But there are those who believe that in the chaos in Gaza there is a chance to save at least some of the hostages, given that Sinouar was adamant on this issue, setting harsh and almost impossible conditions for Israel.
At the same time, the flexibility of Hamas representatives located abroad is highly controversial. Many of them are considered supporters of continuing active resistance against Israel. Thus, the leader of Hamas in the sector, Khalil al-Hayya, in a statement made on Friday in connection with the death of Sinouar, stressed that Hamas will continue to operate until “the establishment of a Palestinian state in the entire Palestinian territory with its capital in Jerusalem” and the hostages will not return “until the aggression stops and Israel will not leave the Gaza Strip.” However, final conclusions can only be drawn after the election of a new head of the Politburo.
Who will be Sinuar’s successor?
Yahya Sinouar led Hamas for less than two and a half months. Let us recall that his appointment to the post of head of the Hamas Politburo instead of Ismail Haniyya, who was killed in Tehran, became known on August 6. The choice of Hamas was unexpected. Sinuara’s name did not appear among the candidates who were actively discussed among experts, including in the Arab media. This was explained by the fact that he could not leave the Gaza Strip because of the war, while traditionally the head of the Politburo was always in charge of Hamas’s external relations and was abroad. However, within Hamas they decided otherwise and, judging by statements from sources within the movement, Sinouar was elected unanimously to the post of head of the Politburo. This was a demonstration of unity between the political and military leadership of Hamas, solidarity with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and also an indicative gesture towards Israel – there will be no compromises.
Now Hamas is again faced with a choice, while the list of candidates for the post of head of the Politburo has remained virtually unchanged since August.
Three names are most often given:
Khalil al-Hayya is one of Hamas’s main negotiators and the formal head of the movement in Gaza, although he has recently been living outside the strip.
Khalid Meshal is the former head of the Hamas politburo, now responsible for leading the foreign wing of the movement. Lebanese media reported that it was he who became the acting head of the Hamas Politburo “until the elections.” But this is doubtful.
Muhammad Sinouar is the younger brother of Yahya Sinouar and one of the commanders of Hamas’s military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades. The key one is from those who are still alive. Considered even more radical and cruel than his older brother. It was he who organized the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit in 2006, in exchange for which Yahya Sinouar and more than a thousand Palestinian terrorists were released from Israeli prison five years later.
Other candidates named include: Musa Abu Marzouk, the first head of the Hamas politburo, Zaher Jabarin, the movement’s general director, and Muhammad Ismail Darouish, the head of the Hamas Shura Council, the body that should elect the new head of the politburo. Until this point, the formal leadership of Hamas is carried out by Darouish.
The website of the Al-Jazeera TV channel was especially distinguished in compiling a list of potential successors to Sinouar, which included Muhammad Deif and Marwan Issa (the leader of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades and his deputy, whose liquidation Israel had previously announced). The IDF announced the death of Deif on August 1, and the liquidation of Issa was reported in mid-March. However, Hamas has still not confirmed the death of both and, accordingly, Al-Jazeera included them in the list of potential candidates for the post of head of the Politburo, and in the first places, as having special merits in the fight against Israel. Another deceased person not officially confirmed by Hamas, a member of the Politburo of the Ruhi Mushtah movement, close to Sinuar, was also included in Al-Jazeera’s list. Among other names, the channel, like most other Arab media, names Muhammad Sinouar and Khalil al-Hayya, and also adds two more candidates to the list.
This:
– Mahmoud al-Zahar is the former head of the Foreign Ministry in the government formed by Hamas in 2006-2007 and one of the most radical players in the political leadership of Hamas. True, after October 7, 2023, nothing was heard about him.
– Muhammad Shabana is one of the commanders of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam brigades, commander of the Rafah battalion, whose achievements include the creation of a network of tunnels in the south of the Gaza Strip.
This scattering of names demonstrates that any surprises are expected from Hamas, while no one knows exactly what is happening inside the movement and which terrorist leaders are still alive.
Given Sinoir’s unexpected election in August, there is no point in guessing now. All that remains is to wait. The choice Hamas makes will show whether this terrorist organization is ready to capitulate and at least negotiate, or whether it intends to continue armed resistance in Gaza.