For the first time, Federal President Van der Bellen is not awarding the task of forming a government to the election winner, thus thwarting the uncompromising Herbert Kickl. His Freedom Party could still benefit in the longer term.
A good three weeks after the parliamentary elections, Austria is entering new territory. For the first time, the election winner will not receive a mandate to form a government. Instead of Herbert Kickl from the Freedom Party (FPÖ), the President awarded it to the previous Chancellor Karl Nehammer from the second-placed People’s Party (ÖVP). No other party wanted to work with Kickl, Alexander Van der Bellen explained his decision. “But Austria needs a government capable of acting.”
The president had previously commissioned the three largest parties, which also include the Social Democrats (SPÖ), to explore possibilities for cooperation. But Kickl stuck to the condition that the FPÖ would only form a government with him as chancellor. The other parties reject this. According to Van der Bellen, they criticized Kickl’s Russia-friendly stance, his lack of demarcation against right-wing extremists and his lack of respect for liberal democracy.
Nehammer faces difficult negotiations
In his reaction, Kickl spoke of a “slap in the face” and the last word had not yet been spoken. He sees a “set-up game” to bring a “coalition of losers” to power. Carinthians claim to embody the will of the people. In the election, the right-wing populist FPÖ received almost 29 percent of the vote. The ÖVP was just behind after major losses; together with the defeated SPÖ, it would still have 92 of 183 seats in the National Council.
Since this is only a single vote above the majority, the inclusion of another party is considered likely. The media primarily names the liberal party Neos, which gained slightly. The Greens, who have formed the government with the ÖVP since 2020, would also be an option. Since the mood between the two coalition partners is considered bad, this should only be a theoretical possibility.
Nehammer is therefore faced with the thankless task of forging a heterogeneous center-left alliance. The Social Democrats have recently made a strong turn to the left, which is reducing the commonalities in economic policy. The issues of asylum and social issues also harbor potential for conflict. However, the pressure of expectations on the next government is enormous because the country is in a stubborn recession and is carrying a huge debt burden.
Even if Van der Bellen’s unusual decision is constitutionally protected, it is most likely to help the FPÖ politically. The party, which has twice failed in government in the past, can now portray itself as a victim and will probably remain comfortably in the opposition. Nehammer, on the other hand, must show rapid and sustained success if the Freedom Party is not to emerge even stronger in the next election.
Kickl remains the main obstacle for the Freedom Party
Even then, the biggest obstacle for the FPÖ in terms of participating in government remains its party president. In contrast to Germany, there is no “firewall” against the right in Austria, but only one against Kickl, who has become strongly radicalized in recent years. It’s not just Jörg Haider, who retreated to Carinthia in 2000 to enable a coalition with the ÖVP, who shows that things could be different. Geert Wilders also recently took second place as the election winner in order to bring his party to power in the Netherlands.
There can be no question of systematic exclusion of the Freedom Party in Austria because it co-governs three out of nine federal states. And while Kickl has failed with his ambitions at the federal level for the time being, the ÖVP and FPÖ have been negotiating a coalition in Vorarlberg since the beginning of this week.
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