How long will it take to rebuild the Gaza Strip?

More than a year after the start of the war in Gazaa report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) calculated how long it would take to rebuild the economy of the Palestinian enclave if, once the conflict is over, it returns to its status before October 7, 2023.

The detailed report states that if the war ends tomorrow, Gaza It would take 350 years to restore the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at its 2022 level.

In its report, the UNCTAD listed the conditions in which life took place in Gaza until before the current war. Since the early 1990s, Israel It imposed restrictions on the movement of goods and people inside and outside the enclave. The restrictions have intensified considerably since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, the year in which also Egypt joined the blockade.

So, for 17 years the 2.3 million inhabitants of Gaza have been confined to the small enclave of 365 square kilometers with one of the highest population densities in the world.

The entry of goods was reduced to basic needs and humanitarian aid.

Gaza It also suffered numerous large-scale Israeli military operations: between 2008 and 2009, 2012, 2014, 2021, 2022, May 2023 and October 2023.

Recurring restrictions, closures and military operations led to the total destruction of infrastructure and the productive base of Gaza. The economic crisis led to a deep dependence on foreign aid.

The current military operations of Israel in Gaza caused a unprecedented humanitarian, environmental and social catastrophe and led to the enclave of underdevelopment the total ruin. The far-reaching repercussions will persist for years, the report maintains.

According to the report’s estimates, if the restrictions had not existed, by the end of 2023 the GDP of Gaza would have been, on average, 77.6% higher than its current level. This implies an estimated cumulative loss of $35.8 billion over the period 2007-2023, equivalent to 17 times Gaza’s GDP in 2023.

GDP is the sum total of all goods and services produced in a country or territory.

Damage caused by the war between October 7, 2023 and May 20, 2024 reduced Gaza’s GDP per capita by more than half while other factors doubled the loss of income.

Furthermore, physical damage to the infrastructure of Gaza caused during the period between October 7, 2023 and the end of January 2024 were estimated at $18.5 billion, the equivalent of seven times the GDP of Gaza in 2022.

The current war has caused destruction throughout the territory, with Entire neighborhoods razed and roads and vital infrastructure in ruins. Before reconstruction begins, mountains of rubble containing decomposing bodies and unexploded ordnance would have to be cleared.

“Once a ceasefire is reached, a return to the status quo before October 2023 would not put Gaza on the necessary path to recovery and sustainable development”, the report states. “If we return to the 2007-2022 growth trend, with an average growth rate of 0.4%, Gaza will need 350 years just to recover 2022 GDP levels.″, he emphasized.

Even so, GDP per capita would decline “continuously and precipitously” as the population increases, he said.

The blocking of Israel included the prohibition of the entry of cement, iron and other construction materials into Gaza. It was alleged that the blockade was necessary to prevent Hamas from continuing to build underground tunnels and to neutralize the amount of weapons.

Israel unlikely to lift blockade as long as Hamas has a presence in Gaza. The prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahuhas said that his country will maintain unlimited control of security in the Palestinian territory.

“There is no future for the people of Gaza as long as its population remains occupied by Hamas,” said Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, in response to the UN report.

According to the AP agency, Rami Alazzeh, author of the report, maintained that he based the calculation on the destruction of the economy during the first seven months of the war and on the time it would take to restore it to the GDP growth rate that Gaza had in average between 2007 and 2022.

“The message is that Gaza’s recovery depends on the conditions under which it occurs”, he stated. “We are not ensuring that Gaza It will take 350 years to recover, because that means Gaza will never recover.”

The report notes that even in the most optimistic scenario, With a projected growth rate of 10%, Gaza’s recovery would take decades.

“Assuming no military operation, freedom of movement of goods and people and a significant level of investment, and population growth of 2.8% annually, UNCTAD estimates that Gaza’s GDP per capita will return to its 2022 in 2050″the report stated.

The destroyed buildings

In September, an evaluation of the HIM based on satellite images concluded that approximately a quarter of all structures in Gaza had been destroyed or severely damaged since the start of the war. About 66% of structures, including more than 227,000 housing units, were indicated to have suffered at least some damage.

The AP said the Shelter Cluster, an international coalition of aid providers led by the Norwegian Refugee Council, estimated that Rebuilding all the destroyed homes in Gaza, as was done after the 2014 war under intense Israeli surveillance, will take 40 years.