That’s why Kim Jong Un’s army is interesting for Putin

First arms deliveries, then soldiers – North Korea has entered the war in Ukraine. Estimates of the number of fighters sent vary, but the assessment in the West does not. American Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke of a “very, very serious problem”, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of a “significant escalation”.

1,500 members of North Korean special forces are said to be already near the front. According to the US, at least 3,000 North Koreans are in eastern Russia. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wants to send a total of 12,000 soldiers to Russia, says South Korean intelligence. But that could just be the beginning.

Ian Bremmer, founder of the American security consulting firm Eurasia Group, warned a small group in Tokyo: “Who knows how many troops they will send?” This would be “a terribly dangerous step,” says Bremmer. “And there’s not much the Americans can do about it.” But how dangerous is North Korea’s army really?

Strength and weakness are closely linked in the case of North Korea. Leader Kim Jong Un’s empire only has 26 million inhabitants, who, according to the World Bank, only generate economic power of around $600 per capita. South Korea has around twice as many inhabitants and a gross domestic product 64 times as high. However, North Korea is considered a major military threat.

In the Global Fire Power Index, which compares the military effectiveness of 147 countries, North Korea ranks 36th. In terms of troop strength, North Korea ranks fourth with 1.3 million active soldiers behind China, India and the USA. North Korea conscripts almost all men for up to ten years – and many women too.

North Korea also has special forces with 200,000 soldiers trained in lightning attacks and infiltration. According to a study by American military intelligence, these units are “among the best trained, equipped, fed and motivated armed forces of the Korean People’s Army.”

In addition, the entire society is militarized, with reservist training units and paramilitary structures right up to the youth.

The combat effectiveness of the North Korean army is lower than the absolute figures suggest because of the country’s poverty. First, soldiers must devote a large portion of their working time to ensuring the economic survival of their units. The state supply channels have largely collapsed.

Army trucks are rented for civilian transportation services. The military also runs its own factories and farms. Secondly, the leadership regularly mobilizes the armies to build roads and bridges. Or as agricultural workers for the barely mechanized agriculture, in which tractors are still a rarity today.

Thirdly, training suffers because the units lack material and, above all, fuel. An example: According to a study by American military intelligence, even North Korea’s fighter pilots only train 15 to 25 hours a year. For comparison: NATO aims for 180 hours as the standard.

But leader Kim wants to change that. Since taking office, he has been training more realistically and more complexly, reports American military intelligence. By supplying weapons and now soldiers to Russia, Kim now also receives, among other things, oil, raw materials, money and food with which the military can improve its readiness.

Similar to the troops, the situation is similar to North Korea’s equipment. The numbers are enormous. According to the online military magazine “Warpower: North Korea,” North Korea has more than 5,800 tanks and 500 ships, more than twice as many as the South. However, most of the weapons are old and poorly maintained due to the constant lack of materials. There is also a shortage of raw materials and even food.

A large-scale attack on South Korea with conventional weapons is therefore considered unlikely, especially since South Korea is conventionally superior to the North in combat power. But for so-called asymmetrical warfare, i.e. smaller attacks with a big impact, it is definitely enough.

One reason for this is the powerful artillery stationed along the border with South Korea. Without much warning, Kim could shell the South Korean capital Seoul, which is not far from the border. The Navy, in turn, has numerous smaller ships, amphibious units and submarines for lightning attacks on ships or islands.

Above all, North Korea is rapidly expanding its arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles that can hit South Korea, Japan and now also the USA. Western experts believe that North Korea has built at least several dozen nuclear warheads and, according to the American think tank Rand Corporation, has enough nuclear weapons material for 112 more bombs.

A major concern in South Korea and the West is that Russia could support the North with know-how or even material to build missiles and nuclear weapons in return for weapons aid. At the same time, Kim is reviving the arms factories through the arms deliveries, renewing his ammunition arsenals and improving his military equipment.

In addition, Russian head of state Vladimir Putin and Kim concluded a military assistance pact in June. Experts now fear that Russia could actively support North Korea in the event of war. American security advisor Bremmer says: “The risks have increased significantly because the North Koreans are now acting like a rogue state with Putin’s support.”

To make matters worse, Russia is preventing new sanctions against North Korea and undermining old ones with its veto in the UN Security Council. Putin ensured that the mandate of the body that monitors sanctions was dissolved in April of this year. Since then, the UN has been officially blind when it comes to sanctions violations.

China is also out as an influencing factor for the time being, for two contradictory reasons. First, Beijing undermined the UN sanctions against North Korea because of the growing conflict with the USA and the alliance with Russia. Now, as a result of Kim’s pact with Russia, China’s influence over its stubborn protégé is dwindling. Even China doesn’t know how far the North Korean-Russian security pact goes, says expert Bremmer.

Planners in the West are preparing for various crisis scenarios. In addition to an attack by North Korea against South Korea, this also includes military support for a Chinese attack on Taiwan. In the second case, Kim could open a second front to tie up American troops and thus defeat the archenemy together with China and Russia.

However, military provocations are considered more likely, such as a seventh nuclear test before or after the American presidential elections in early November. An attack on five islands controlled by South Korea near the North Korean coast in the Yellow Sea or even their occupation is also part of the thought games.

This would allow North Korea to test whether the US is actually supporting the South in retaking the islands or whether it is holding back because of the threat of nuclear strikes against the US.

But there is also a growing global risk that North Korea will become, as in the past, an arms supplier for terrorists and aggressive regimes. The US already fears that Kim could supply nuclear weapons to Iran.

The elections in the USA are increasing the uncertainty. A possible second term in office for Donald Trump is fueling concerns, especially in South Korea, that Trump could undermine the alliance, possibly partially or completely withdraw American troops and enter into a nuclear horse trade with North Korea. North Korea will therefore remain an important factor of uncertainty for the global security situation in the coming weeks, months and possibly years.