“The purpose behind North Korea’s ‘debris balloon provocation’,” by Chung Eui-sung, director of the World Institute for North Korea Studies

The recent launch of waste balloons by North Korea toward South Korea It goes beyond a mere act of provocation: it represents a multipurpose strategy aimed at political and psychological effects. In other words, it aims to incite unrest within South Korea, stoke internal conflicts (especially over North Korean politics), and send a political message to the international community, particularly to USA.

In May of this year, North Korea began launching large quantities of balloons filled with debris towards South Korea as a retaliatory measure, alleging that NGOs south korean They were sending propaganda leaflets to North Korea under the motto of ‘information dissemination’. To date, more than 5,000 balloons have been sent across the border on more than 20 occasions, carried by northwest winds. Even now, with the leaflet-sending activities of NGOs in South Korea detained, it is very likely that many balloons sent by North Korea keep drifting towards South Korea through the skies.

These waste balloons carry household garbage and unhealthy and smelly substances that cause discomfort and environmental damage. Reports have also emerged of balloons containing explosive devices, such as timer incendiary bombs, directly threatening the lives and safety of citizens. south koreans. In addition to property damage from balloon crashes and fires, The social costs of waste collection and disposal have increased significantly.

This ballooning tactic can be interpreted as a classic example of asymmetric provocations of North Korea. A direct military provocation would provoke a strong response from South Korea and the international community, so North Korea resorts to unconventional, relatively low-level provocations to provoke Seoul. The goal is to generate physical discomfort and at the same time create social anxiety. Besides, North Korea expects that internal conflicts over the responses of South Korea such as loudspeaker broadcasts directed to the North, generate public distrust in the government.

There is also an interpretation that North Korea’s debris balloon provocations are part of a broader external strategy aimed not only at South Korea but also at the US presidential election. and the policy towards North Korea. Pyongyang may believe that the electoral victory of Donald Trump would be favorable to change future policies Americans toward North Korea instead of Kamala Harris continuing the policies of the Biden Administration.

It is likely that North Korea see Trump who has had a personal relationship with Kim Jong-un as a better option to influence American politics in their favor.

Today, with the Middle East on the brink of war and the protracted conflict in Ukraine, the influence of USA is being questioned and President Biden’s approval ratings have plummeted. This decrease in the power of USA to prevent war signals an opportunity for the campaign Trump making an election victory seem more attainable. Trump He has promised to achieve peace in the Middle East and quickly end the war in Ukraine as part of his campaign promises. In this context, Rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula could work in your favor.

North Korea, fully aware of Trump’s election strategy, may have deliberately raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula to increase Trump’s chances of winning.. Instead of costly missile provocations, North Korea probably concluded that it could achieve both “provoking internal conflicts in the South” and “supporting Trump” launching low-cost debris balloons that could be deployed anytime, anywhere.

In the past, Trump expressed interest in easing sanctions on North Korea and negotiate a peace agreement for the peninsula Corea and his opinions on reducing the troop presence Americans in South Korea or increased maintenance costs align with the interests of North Korea.

It is likely that debris balloon launches North Korea towards the South continue until the presidential elections of USA, with possible fluctuations in scale and content. The South Korean government must adopt a stronger and clearer response strategy, taking measures to alleviate public safety concerns. Strengthening international cooperation and maintaining a coherent message towards North Korea They are also essential to ensure a stable response that does not succumb to provocations North Korean.

The provocations of North Korea with waste balloons can be seen as a strategic maneuver to maintain the dictatorship of Kim Jong-un and influence the presidential elections of USAwith the ultimate objective of strengthening their bargaining power in future relations between USA y North Korea.