Evo Morales | Luis Arce: The tension in Bolivia due to the president’s announcement to exercise his powers to lift road blocks

“There can be no dialogue without lifting the blockades or pressure measures that are strangling the economy of Bolivian families, which is why we demand the immediate lifting of all blockade points to restore normality in our country. If we do not listen to this clamorous request of the Bolivian people, our democratically elected Government with more than 55% of the votes will exercise its constitutional powers to protect the interest of the Bolivian people,” manifested Arce.

He president accused followers of Morales having generated a food shortages “to cause famine in the town” and to prevent fuelswhose supply was already irregular before the protests, reach the pumps in a timely manner.

He added that The blockades have left at least 70 people injured during operations to try to unblock the roads, including nine civilians and 61 police officers, and an economic impact of more than 1.7 billion dollars for the country.

The followers of Morales block roads, especially in the department of Cochabambato demand that the judicial proceedings for statutory rape and human trafficking against the former president be withdrawn, along with demands for a solution to the economic situation and the defense of the presidential candidacy of the leader of the Movement to Socialism (MAS) for the 2025 elections.

On Thursday, the day started with 24 locking points: 20 of them in Cochabamba, 2 in Potosí, one in Oruro and one in Santa Cruz, according to the report of the Bolivian Highway Administrator (ABC).

After Arce’s message, Morales accused the president of launching “threats” against his followers and held him responsible for “any act of violence” that occurs in the country.

“Instead of calling for a dialogue to resolve the conflict that began long before the March to Save Bolivia, Arce launches threats against the mobilized people. Any act of violence will be your sole responsibility. “Only sincere dialogue will solve the serious problems that the country currently has,” he wrote on the social network X.

Morales He also criticized that Arce has not said anything about the “attempted assassination ordered by his Government Minister, Eduardo del Castillo”, in reference to the armed attack that he reported that he suffered on Sunday in Cochabamba. The Government assures that it was a self-attack.

Regarding the complex situation that Bolivia is experiencing, The Commerce spoke with Ricardo Calla Ortegapolitical analyst, sociologist, anthropologist and former minister during the government of President Carlos Mesa (1995-1996).

-What could happen in Bolivia in the next few hours, after the president said that he will exercise all his powers against road blockades?

It cannot be known with certainty. But I sense that not much is going to happen in the immediate future because we are with the festival of All Saints in Bolivia. So, it is very difficult for the government to declare a emergencyeven if it is regional or regionalized, in the midst of this event that in the country is extremely important and strong in festive-religious terms. So, Most likely, if a state of emergency is declared, it will only be done next Monday.. We are going to enter a kind of waiting period until Mondays, when the conflict will be reactivated. Declaring a state of siege earlier would be quite unpopular, given the importance of the date.

The president’s message Arce Wednesday was like a bucket of cold water for the most heated mentalities here in Bolivia, because it was thought that the emergency.

-What type of legal tools does the state of exception give the Government to intervene in the blockades?

Allows you to move Armed forces to intervene blockages. But it is not easy to declare a state of siege because In the Bolivian case, at this moment the Armed Forces are not aligning themselves behind the Arce government in a resolute manner.. There is not enough will in higher command to agree to carry out the unlocking. Because? Basically for two reasons: The times that there have been very intense conflicts in Boliviaand the Armed Forces have intervened, violent events have occurred and many generals and colonels have ended up in prison due to the violence that has been unleashed. The senior commanders are afraid of incriminating themselves in acts of violence and, therefore, they are not the quickest to say let’s go ahead with the troops, because obviously The historical experience of these last 30 years tells us that the violent conflict ends with generals and colonels arrested. So, the Government has to see how it aligns the Armed Forces to carry out a process of repressing the blockades.

Secondly, and this is very important, In the Armed Forces and in the high command there is a lot of resentment with the Arce government for the police persecution that the president himself unleashed against them as a result of that event that became known as the general’s coup d’état Juan José Zúñiga in June of this year. That supposed coup d’état event, which was actually a military sit-in in Murillo Square, led Arce to open a persecution process against the military commanders at that time. This situation has generated a lot of animosity in the military high command towards the government. And in that context, It is more difficult for Arce to pull the Armed Forces towards repressing the blockades.

In Boliviamultiple sectors, many people in all cities, large unions and organizations, They are demanding Arce to carry out the state of emergency. There is enormous social and popular rejection against Evo Morales. He from his strong bastion, which is the Tropics and the Alto Valley in the department of Cochabamba, Bolivia is paralyzing with blockades. But in the urban complex, and also rural areas of the other departments, The rejection of Evo Morales is tremendously strong, and everyone is asking for his head, they are asking for a state of emergency, They ask for the arrest of Evo Morales. The bulk of Bolivian society is against Evo Morales, but Arce is delaying the declaration of a state of emergency because it cannot align the Armed Forces with sufficient clarity.

-Is this situation endangering the Arce Government; he might not finish his term?

If the police and military apparatus of repression are not aligned, the situation could become very conflictive for government stability. There was a change in police command a couple of weeks ago and thanks to that change The police have begun to respond to Arce. The military high command was not responding well and a couple of days ago the military high command changed; You surely have the expectation that they will respond to the Government, but that is not automatic.

At the moment, There is a tie situation in the confrontation between Evismo and Arcismo, the two sides of the BUT. This draw is wearing away the Evo Morales deeply throughout the country. On the other hand, it is also deeply wearing down one’s own Arcewhy many people see it as a government that does not have enough strengthwhich does not resolve the political crises, the blockades or the economic crisis. The two wings of the MAS are wearing away and circumstances could arise such that the State crisis we are experiencing ends up producing a governance crisis. We should not be surprised if that happens, but we have not yet reached the epicenter of the state crisis.

We are getting closer to that epicenter, but it may take a couple of weeks or three. It could happen a little fasterbut due to the circumstances of how things are happening, Neither Evo Morales has enough strength to bring down the Arce Presidency, nor does Arce have enough strength to unblock the roads blocked by Evo Morales.

-There are civilians who are organizing to try to unblock the roads. What can this situation lead to?

To a social crisis, to a state of anomie and to political chaos and violence. So, We are entering a dizzying volcano that could explode so that we will have results that we cannot imagine. In any case, the same will of sectors of civilians who are wanting to unblock is a pressure for Arce is at this very urgent moment to organize the Armed Forces and align them to unblock the roads. It is not a simple song of will that is expressed when various civil groups say we are going to unblock ourselves, because already this morning, approximately 10 vehicles of young people have arrived in the town of Mairana to unlock, and there has been a civil-to-civilian confrontation. So, it is very delicate because people are very upset with Evo Morales and they are really asking for his head.

-Mr. Evo Morales reported an assassination attempt and the government has said that it was a self-attack. Who to believe?

I don’t believe Evo Morales. He is a man marked by lies, he is a character of great immorality and also great mediocrity. So, in the mouth of the liar the truth becomes doubtful, and that saying so popular in Latin America is valid very precisely in these circumstances. But on Arce’s side, we also all doubt what the president says. Because we have already lived through a long circumstance of a party that has made lying a way of existence. So, we all doubt Evo Morales’ version and we doubt Luis Arce’s version. What could have been the truth? What will have happened? The detectives will have to find out.

In the broader picture, the two factions of the MAS are wearing down, and we know that from that political organization the lying discourse is very permanent. In any case, for the purposes of understanding what is happening, we are seeing a fight between two closely linked gangs with very dark interests, and a plot is developing that is leading Bolivia to a situation of chaos. We hope that this situation will be resolved in the coming weeks.