Elections become a battle of the sexes, women’s rights will prevail?

The American presidential elections this year will be marked by a significant gender gap. Donald Trump has a significant advantage among the male electorate, and Kamala Harris among women. Poll after poll has found a wide gender gap in the 2024 presidential election.

Although the fact that more women support Democrats than Republicans is not a new phenomenon, the gender gap has been increasing in recent decades, especially among young voters.

Since the election will be close, the right woman could be enough to prevail for one of the candidates.

“The differences are too small… So one or two percentage points is a huge thing. It doesn’t sound like it, but it is,” said political analyst Ellen Kountz.

Photo: Brendan McDermid

Efforts to convince Republican women to vote for Harris were evident when former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney toured with the vice president, encouraging conservative suburban women not to vote for Trump.

“You can vote your conscience and you never have to tell anybody,” Cheney said at the second of three rallies in Michigan on October 21.

A Quinnipiac University public opinion poll conducted in October in five key “swing” states showed that Harris has a significant advantage among voters, and Trump the same amount of advantage among voters.

“Women’s votes will be the deciding factor in this election,” said Katherine Tate, professor of political science at Brown University.

“If Harris wins, it will be because women elected her,” she added.

Voter response is also important. Women have registered and voted in greater numbers than men in every presidential election since 1980, according to the Center on American Women and Politics.

Ž women have so far been more numerous than men and in the early response to the elections.

Photo: TIERNEY L CROSS

According to Politico and data from the University of Florida’s American Election Project, there is currently a gender gap of 10 percentage points in early voting in Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. And that applies to the entire political spectrum. Republican women also vote early.

The Kamala Harris campaign expressed optimism about that and is now focusing on convincing moderate suburban women and non-college-educated white women in the final days of the campaign. They hope, it seems, that these disaffected women will turn out en masse for the elections, as in the 2022 parliamentary elections.

“There are two gaps between the sexes. One relates to presidential preferences, given that women are more likely to support Democrats and men are more likely to support Republicans. But in the last 20 years or so, there is also a huge gap because more and more women are voting,” said Susanne Schwarz, professor of political science at Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania.

“I think we will see a record turnout of men in these elections. Već we saw that a record number of young ž women registered for the elections. That gender gap when it comes toč about the turnout will probably increase in these elections”, she added.

More and more I among young people choose

The gender gap along political lines in the US is particularly pronounced among young voters. This is a surprising trend, given that the majority of young people voted for Biden in previous elections, regardless of gender.

Nearly 66 percent of women ages 18 to 39 said they would likely vote for Harris, in an Ipsos poll for ABC released Oct. 27, compared to just 32 percent for Trump. But only 46 percent of men of the same age plan to vote for Harris and 51 percent for Trump.

Photo: TIERNEY L CROSS

Such a gap between young people did not exist in the previous generation, let alone in the last elections.

This is partly explained by the fact that young women generally become more progressive than young men, recent research has shown. A recent Gallup poll found that young women in the US have become significantly more liberal than young men since Trump was elected in 2016.

The ideological turn of young women to the left can be explained by several factors. The #MeToo movement in 2017 exposed sexual violence and harassment. Women have also become more politically aware over the years, especially after the Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade ruling in June 2022, abolishing the federal right to abortion.

Their liberalism also extends to their views on the environment, discomfort with lax gun laws and race relations, according to Gallup.

On the other hand, young men “often feel that if they ask questions, they are labeled as misogynistic, homophobic, or racist” and then “are drawn into macho culture,” said John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Institute of Politics.

But it is not clear what this could mean for the result of this year’s elections, said Schwarz.

“It depends on the response of young voters… This is the group that is least likely to go to the polls,” she said.

A new kind of man

In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, Trump is portraying himself as a vindictive protector.

Photo: Brian Snyder

“I am your warrior, I am your justice,” he said at CPAC, the annual gathering of conservatives.

At a pre-election rally in Indiana at the end of September, he told women: “I will be your protector”, adding that they will be “happy, healthy, self-reliant and free” and therefore “will no longer think about abortion”.

His goal, some say, is to appeal to men who feel that traditional masculinity is under threat. And it seems that these efforts, supported by billionaire Elon Musk, are finding fertile ground among male voters.

According to a CBS News survey, the results of which were published on October 27, men are more likely to say that the promotion of gender equality in the US has gone too far.

This could be even more the case with young men who are turning towards the right-wing political spectrum.

The New York Times reporter, Claire Cain Miller, recently interviewed young voters for The Daily podcast and found that the main movementč among young men, the fact that they want to take care of the family, and many believe that this is not possible in the current economy.

Although they may not have a family yet, it seems that the heart is in their hearts. their identity to be the head of the family.

“I don’t think you’re a man until you have to take care of other people. Supporting the people around you financially and emotionally makes you a man,” said 20-year-old Ranger Erwin from Las Vegas.

On the other hand, Harris tries to attract a completely different type of masculinity. In contrast to the image of a supermačo protector, the vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz perfectly embodies the image of a good American father who takes care of his family.

“It promises a new era of manhood,” advertises political analyst Ellen Kountz.

“Kamala is surrounded by strong men, but not a small guy. Like Tim Waltz. He is an armed hunter, but also number two in relation to his wife,” she said.

“I would almost say that these are new gender roles. And Republicans emphasize excessive, toxic hypermasculinity, which I think ultimately does not help them,” she said.

A woman with a gun

Harris breaks down traditional gender stereotypes in her own way.

“A good example is Kamala and her gun,” Kountz said, referring to Harris’ disclosure that she owns a gun during the Sept. 10 presidential debate.

CNN reported that a source said that the wordč about a gun that can fit in a man’s purse.

“I don’t think people imagine black women with guns… It breaks down gender codes.”

“We’ve been conditioned to want to keep these traditional roles and ideas about gender, but a lot has changed,” Kountz said. “Kamala doesn’t even talk about being a woman.”

Given that the race is so close, it is hard to say which strategy will be more successful.

“Certainly the formula for winning is to win more women than you lose men,” said Democratic poll analyst Celinda Lake.