Trump or Harris? According to social media, he is the winner

Donald Trump he would undoubtedly be the favorite in the elections (PDF) if social media faithfully reflected reality. This is what emerges from a Social Data analysis of approximately 1 billion mentions and more than 6 billion online interactions.

On social media, the Republican candidate achieves double the results of his Democratic rival

In particular, in the four months that have passed since the candidacy of Kamala Harris in July until the day of the imminent vote, the analysis of 962 million mentions and 6.5 billion online interactions speaks clearly: even by simply observing basic metrics, such as the number of mentions on the web and on Twitter, the interactions generated and the visibility of messages, the Republican candidate obtains double results compared to his Democratic rival.

Trump ahead in positive mentions both on the web and on X

However, it is reductive to interpret a quote as an endorsement, especially for a controversial figure like Trump, as demonstrated by the sentiment analysis in quotes where the incidence of negative posts is higher for the tycoon.

However, if we consider the absolute number of positive mentions, Trump’s advantage persists both on the web and on representative and qualitative, it shows Harris ahead in only 10 out of 50 states, and not among the most influential: New York, Delaware, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming and New Hampshire.

In the last week the panorama has been slightly more favorable to Harris

Analyzing the last week of monitoring (October 28-November 4), the panorama appears slightly more favorable to Harris, who conquers Alabama, Nevada, Vermont, Maryland, Louisiana, Kansas, Missouri, Connecticut and Iowa. However, he loses support in North Carolina, New Jersey, Washington and Oregon, bringing the total of favorable states to 15, too few compared to the 50 overall.

Sentiment on Facebook is clearly in Trump’s favor

Looking at the performance on Facebook and Instagram over the last month, things get a little better for Kamala Harris. Moreover, it is known that Meta is closer to the democratic world, while Twitter has a greater affinity with the republican one. The difference in followers on Facebook and Instagram is explained by the historical presence of the Republican candidate. Despite this, the engagement levels achieved by Harris are valid when compared to the disparity in the fan base, while sentiment on Facebook is clearly in Trump’s favor.

Harris has a larger female following and a younger audience

Demographic analysis shows that Harris has a more pronounced female following and a young audience in younger age groups, while Trump is more popular among men and in the 35 to 44 age group. Above 45, engagement declines for both candidates. Voters’ interests reflect different audiences: Harris is supported by lovers of music, literature, law and animals, while Trump finds support among those who are more family- and social media-oriented.

Writers and professors with Harris and entrepreneurs and soldiers with Trump

On a professional level, writers, teachers and artists support Harris, while managers, soldiers, entrepreneurs and politicians are closer to Trump, with a stronger orientation towards economics and power.

Finally, the recurring themes in the discussions highlight a more abstract and future-oriented approach for Harris, except the symbolic value of the possibility of becoming the first female president. Trump, on the contrary, builds a narrative based on American identity, the collaboration with Elon Musk, and events such as the attack in Pennsylvania, themes that most affect the collective imagination.

Among the supporters who generate the most engagement for Trump are figures linked to the American identity, for Harris are international celebrities

Among the supporters who generate the most engagement for Trump, strong figures linked to the American identity stand out, while for Harris, international celebrities such as Beyoncé and Taylor Swift emerge, as well as former presidents such as Biden, Obama and Carter. Everything seems to indicate a large victory for Trump, but social media does not represent a faithful copy of reality, but rather a parallel plan that can influence public perception and, consequently, move the undecided. It remains to be seen how this view will translate into actual voting